Silver price forecast: XAG/USD eyes $65 if Fed rhetoric turns dovish today

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XAG/USD rebounds ahead of Fed speeches

Highlights

Silver hits $64.64, then retraces as overbought RSI sparks aggressive profit taking late week
Rate cut boosts silver appeal as $60 to $61 demand zone anchors bullish structure
XAG/USD bullish recovery above 20 EMA faces risk if hawkish Fed comments lift the dollar

The retracement was triggered by overbought conditions after silver's aggressive rally to $64.64. The 4-hour RSI entered into overbought territory, rising above 80 for the first time in December. This technical stretch prompted heavy profit-taking during Friday’s afternoon session. However, the pullback was cushioned by a key demand zone between $61 and $60, which aligns with the base of last week’s swing high on the 4-hour chart. This zone served as immediate support and helped preserve the broader bullish structure.

Silver price dynamics (Dec 2025). Source: Tradingview

Silver began recovering early in Monday’s Asian session and extended gains into the European hours. The recovery reached as high as $63.80, delivering intraday gains of over 3%. The bounce reflects continued bullish momentum, especially as price attempts to retake last week’s peak. Current price movement remains above the 20 EMA on the 4-hour chart, which sits near $62.30 and now acts as a near-term support level should another pullback occur.

Dollar reaction to Miran and Williams' speeches key to silver's short-term direction

Momentum indicators show a measured but still constructive bias. The 4-hour RSI has cooled from extreme levels but is once again ticking higher, now nearing 64. This aligns with broader bullish sentiment tied to the rate-cut environment. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding precious metals, thereby strengthening silver’s appeal. In addition, renewed uncertainty in financial markets continues to fuel safe-haven demand for assets like silver.

Still, traders are weighing the impact of recent hawkish remarks from Fed officials. While the rate cut supports the bullish case, further hawkish commentary could lift the U.S. dollar and pressure silver. The dollar's strength has historically capped upside in commodities priced in USD. If speeches later today from Fed Governor Stephen Miran or New York Fed President John Williams carries a hawkish tone, silver could break below the 20 EMA and revisit the $60 to $61 demand zone.

If the tone from these Fed officials is dovish, silver could push through last week’s high and potentially reach above $65. In that case, momentum would likely accelerate as buyers target uncharted territory. Until then, traders will stay focused on volume, RSI progression, and intraday EMAs to validate whether silver has regained enough strength to retest and hold above its record level.

In recent analysis, we discussed how silver jumped above $64 after the Fed’s rate cut weakened the dollar and boosted demand. Repeated rebounds from the 20, 50, and 100 EMAs confirmed a strong bullish silver structure.

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