Silver price forecast: XAG/USD to register fifth weekly gain amid safe-haven demand
Silver [XAG/USD] is trading near $74.7 during the European session on Boxing Day, Friday, registering intraday gains of 4% following a strong Asian session where the price surged from $71.8 to a record high of $75. This sharp advance follows a quiet Christmas Day when markets were closed and positions the metal for a fifth consecutive daily gain. It also places silver on track for its fifth straight weekly close in positive territory.
Highlights
- Silver up 30% in December, driven by Fed cuts and industrial AI demand.
- XAU RSI reads 85, yet buyers stay dominant as macro tailwinds support the rally.
- Silver upside momentum may extend toward $76 while EMA support holds at $73.5
Week-to-date, silver has gained over 11%, the strongest weekly performance in three weeks. The broader trend is even more notable. Since the beginning of December, silver has climbed by more than 30%, making this its best monthly performance in over four years. Despite persistent overbought conditions, upward momentum has continued to dominate the market.
Silver price dynamics (Dec 2025). Source: Tradingview
The daily RSI now reads 85, the highest overbought level silver has reached this year. Typically, such levels would signal exhaustion, but recent market behavior has ignored these signals due to underlying fundamental tailwinds. These include rising demand for silver in AI infrastructure, especially in data center construction, which continues to support industrial demand.
Silver technicals confirm a strong trend as price holds above key hourly EMAs
Another key driver has been the Federal Reserve's policy pivot. Since the start of the year, the Fed has delivered three rate cuts totaling 75 basis points. Market sentiment also favors additional cuts in 2026, driven by the easing stance of the Fed and the influence of President Donald Trump's protectionist economic policies. These policies weaken the U.S. dollar and make non-yielding assets, like silver, more attractive.
Safe-haven demand has also been supported by geopolitical tension between the United States and Venezuela. As a result, the U.S. Dollar Index has declined, increasing capital inflows into precious metals. All these macro factors have aligned to keep buyers in control throughout the month.
Technically, the 20, 50, and 100 EMAs on the hourly chart continue to point upward. Price has consistently held above all three throughout December, confirming the strength of the uptrend. The 20 EMA, now near $73.5, provides immediate support. If momentum extends into the U.S. session, silver’s continued upside may reach $76 before facing any meaningful supply.
In recent analysis, we discussed how silver consolidated near $72 after rallying to a record high. DXY weakness and Fed expectations sustained bids despite overbought RSI readings
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