US dollar vs yen price prediction: further upside likely as USD/JPY holds above ¥156.90

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US dollar vs yen rises 0.14% today

Highlights

USD/JPY trades at ¥156.93, firmly above MA-20, MA-50, and MA-200, confirming an upward bias across all timeframes.
Momentum indicators, including MACD, ADX, and Awesome Oscillator, support bullish sentiment, with buyers maintaining control and limited signs of exhaustion.
USD/JPY is expected to remain in a ¥156.00–¥157.50 range over the next five days, with over 80% probability of further price increases.

Bullish momentum persists despite neutral oscillator divergence

Momentum remains positive, as suggested by a strong buy signal from the MACD and moderate ADX reading, although the latter indicates trend strength is only average. RSI (56), CCI (51), and Stoch RSI (51) are all near neutral, giving mild overbought indications on lower timeframes but not a clear warning of exhaustion. Bull/Bear Power is moderately positive (0.44), showing buyers have the upper hand intraday, while the Awesome Oscillator also supports a bullish tone. There was no significant gap between the previous close (¥156.71) and today’s open (¥156.83). The pair is currently near the top of its intraday range (¥156.82 – ¥156.86), reflecting low volatility and steady upward pressure after the open. Despite generally bullish momentum, slight divergences between neutral oscillators and strong trend signals should be noted but do not present a clear reversal risk at this juncture.

Bullish outlook dominates as consolidation likely before breakout

Looking ahead over the next five trading days, USD/JPY is expected to trade in a range between ¥156.00 and ¥157.50. There is a very high probability (more than 80%) of further price increases, with the probability of a decline much less likely based on the strong buy signals from MA-50, RSI, ADX, and MACD on the weekly horizon. Under the baseline scenario, the pair is likely to consolidate within this volatility band relative to current levels. Should buyers gain momentum, a breakout above ¥157.50 could lead to accelerated gains, while a loss of support below ¥156.00 may trigger a pullback towards lower technical levels, although downside risk remains limited.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, analyst at Traders Union, sees continued strength in USD/JPY after a firm technical breakout above key MAs and supportive bullish momentum. He notes that neutral sentiment on lower timeframes is not enough to outweigh the consistently positive trend signals. The absence of any relevant news keeps macro drivers in the background, allowing technicals and sentiment to remain dominant. Karapetjanc believes buyers are likely to maintain control, with upside risks outweighing the chances of a meaningful pullback. "I expect USD/JPY to consolidate above ¥156.00 and see a breakout toward ¥157.50 as the more probable scenario in the coming days."

Previously it was reported that USD/JPY remains above all major moving averages on the daily chart, supported by strong buy signals from the MACD and stable bullish momentum, as reflected by a positive BBP and a neutral ADX. The pair is expected to consolidate near the upper end of its recent range, with immediate support at ¥156.10 and resistance at ¥157.00, while indicators suggest a high probability of further short-term gains.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.