Crypto and AI IPOs underperform broader market in 2025
Crypto- and AI-linked initial public offerings weighed on overall US IPO performance last year, causing public debuts to lag behind the S&P 500.
Shares of all companies that went public in 2025 gained 13.9% on a weighted average basis, underperforming the S&P 500’s 16% rise, according to Bloomberg.
The year marked a reopening of the IPO market, helped by a more crypto-friendly stance from the Trump administration, which encouraged Wall Street to back digital asset firms. However, performance across listings was uneven, especially among emerging technology companies. Several AI-focused firms, including data center developer Fermi and expense platform Navan, also struggled after listing. The results highlighted growing investor caution toward high-growth narratives.
Mixed outcomes for major crypto listings
Stablecoin issuer Circle Internet Group delivered one of the strongest crypto debuts, raising $1.05 billion in June and seeing its shares surge 170% on the first day. That momentum faded as Bitcoin retreated from its October peak, pushing Circle’s stock down nearly 70% from its highs by year-end. Gemini, the crypto exchange founded by the Winklevoss twins, ranked among the weakest performers, with shares falling more than 60% from their IPO price by late December.
Bullish, another crypto exchange that listed in August, followed a similar path, giving back most of its early gains. These outcomes underscored how sensitive crypto equities remain to broader market sentiment and token price cycles. Early enthusiasm proved difficult to sustain amid volatility.
IPO market turns sharply fundamentals-driven
Market analysts described 2025 as a selective and challenging year for new listings. According to PwC’s US IPO leader Mike Bellin, investors demanded stronger fundamentals and clearer operating stories from companies entering public markets. Medium-sized IPOs priced between $500 million and $1 billion posted far weaker returns than larger offerings.
The largest IPO of the year, medical supplier Medline, stood out as a rare success, with shares up about 40% since listing. In contrast, gas exporter Venture Global became one of the worst performers after cutting its offering size and seeing shares collapse. The trend signals a tougher environment ahead for speculative tech and crypto firms seeking public capital.
Recently we wrote that the S&P 500 is starting the new year on firm footing, trading near 6,900 Tuesday after extending Monday’s rally that lifted the index 0.64%.
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