Silver rallies 4.01% as bullish momentum follows global supply tightness and Fed policy speculation

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Silver jumps 4.01% to $91.04 today

Highlights

Silver's rally is driven by robust safe-haven demand and reported global supply tightness, including the US Mint halting sales amid surging physical demand.
Geopolitical tensions and heightened speculation around US Federal Reserve policy have further supported silver's upward momentum.
Silver price action has been influenced by moves in the US Dollar and expectations of lower interest rates.

Safe-haven buying rises amid supply concerns and Fed policy speculation

Silver's rally has been fueled by robust safe-haven demand alongside reports of global supply tightness, with the US Mint halting silver sales amid surging physical demand and mounting stress in both physical and paper markets. Ongoing geopolitical tensions and heightened speculation surrounding US Federal Reserve policy direction have further supported the asset's upward momentum. The price has also been influenced by moves in the US Dollar and expectations of lower interest rates.

Uptrend strength faces exhaustion risks as oscillators flash overbought

Momentum signals are strong, as both the MACD and ADX indicate robust bullish conditions on the daily timeframe. However, several oscillators highlight stretched conditions, with the RSI at 73.32, Stochastic RSI in overbought territory at 99.51, and the CCI also deeply overbought at 181.17. Bull/Bear Power confirms buyer dominance intraday with an overbought reading. The Awesome Oscillator continues to support the prevailing upward trend. The daily performance shows a sharp move higher, rising $3.51 or 4.01% after a small gap down on the open, with the current price near today’s high after a highly volatile session and sustained strength throughout the day. There is a clear divergence between momentum — still bullish — and oscillators, which warn of potential exhaustion, so short-term caution is warranted despite ongoing intraday buying pressure.

New highs possible as bullish signals outpace limited downside risk

Looking ahead, the expected price range for the next five trading days is $90.88 to $92.13, forming a volatility band relative to current levels. The probability of a further rise is very high (more than 80%), with a drop considered much less likely, supported by bullish signals from weekly RSI, ADX, MACD, and the MA-50. The baseline scenario sees XAG/USD consolidating sideways within this narrow corridor. A breakout above resistance could lead to new highs if strong buying momentum persists, while a drop below dynamic support near $90.88 may trigger short-term profit-taking and a test of lower support levels.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, sees silver’s technical uptrend as solid but notes caution is warranted. He believes safe-haven demand and news-driven flows have driven silver sharply higher, but overbought signals are hard to ignore. Momentum remains bullish, yet oscillators point to exhaustion, so he maintains a defensive stance. "For now, I expect sideways consolidation between $90.88 and $92.13, with any failure of support likely to trigger profit-taking."

Previously it was reported that silver continues to demonstrate strong bullish momentum, trading well above major moving averages with robust capital inflows and heightened volatility amid geopolitical and Fed-related uncertainty. Despite overbought signals from RSI and oscillators indicating short-term caution, technicals suggest high probabilities of continued consolidation between dynamic support and resistance, with potential for further upside if breakout levels are surpassed.

Source of Data: XAG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.