BP stock price forecast: short-term caution as BP dips below key resistance

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BP slips 0.85% to GBX 433.20

Highlights

BP PLC announced a write-down of up to $5 billion in its gas and low-carbon energy division for the fourth quarter due to impairments.
Fourth quarter results were further impacted by weak oil-trading performance, adding downward pressure to upcoming earnings.
BP generated $27.3 billion in operating cash flow in 2024 and continues a $750 million quarterly share buyback alongside dividend payments.

Impairments and weak trading weigh as cash flow backs shareholder returns

BP PLC disclosed a write-down of up to $5 billion in its gas and low-carbon energy division for the fourth quarter due to impairments, impacting upcoming earnings. The company also noted weak oil-trading performance for the same period. Supporting shareholder returns, BP generated $27.3 billion in operating cash flow in 2024 and continues its quarterly share buyback of $750 million alongside ongoing dividend payments.

Mixed momentum and resistance as oscillators signal caution despite buyer strength

Technically, BP is challenging resistance as it sits above both short-term (MA-20) and long-term (MA-200) moving averages, while struggling below the medium-term MA-50 and the Ichimoku Kijun. The MACD signals strong sell momentum, the ADX remains neutral, and oscillators such as the RSI at 52.29 and CCI at 56.41 point to bullish but not overbought conditions. Stochastic RSI and Bull/Bear Power show overbought signals, reflecting strong buyer activity. The day opened with a mild downward gap, and despite moderate volatility and buyer pressure intraday, there are early signs of short-term caution due to divergences among indicators.

Consolidation likely as technicals limit downside risk in near term

Over the next five trading days, BP is likely to trade within a typical volatility band between GBX 425.00 and GBX 440.00, staying above the MA-20 and MA-200. The probability of further price gains remains elevated, with downside risk considered low — less than 20% — based on technical signals from weekly moving averages, RSI, and MACD. The baseline outlook is for consolidation above GBX 428. A bullish breakout is possible if the price clears resistance at GBX 440, while a close below GBX 425 could lead to additional downside risk.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees BP maintaining a fragile bullish structure, supported by trends above MA-20 and MA-200, but notes the clear struggle below MA-50 and Ichimoku resistance. He points to the recent $5 billion write-down and weak trading performance as fundamental concerns that may cap upside, even with ongoing buybacks and strong cash flow. The analyst remains cautious, expecting BP to consolidate between GBX 425.00 and GBX 440.00 with low downside risk for now. "Base case remains consolidation above GBX 428 — but if GBX 425 is breached, expect sellers to regain control."

Previously it was reported that BP PLC is consolidating just below its short- and medium-term moving averages, with technical indicators reflecting mixed momentum and limited near-term upside. Resistance is marked near the Ichimoku Kijun, support resides at the 200-day average, and current sentiment suggests a range-bound outlook with a slight downside bias.

Source of Data: BP Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.