Silver price drops — what’s behind today’s move

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Silver slides 8.86% today to $103.75

Highlights

Silver saw extreme volatility, fueled by strong speculative and retail demand in Asia despite institutional ETF outflows totaling nearly 29 million troy ounces since December 2025.
Macroeconomic uncertainty and the US Federal Reserve's decision not to cut rates contributed to turbulence and triggered a sharp collapse in the gold-to-silver ratio.
Silver’s spot price at $103.75 remains above key moving averages, with $97.12 as dynamic support and $110–$121 as major resistance amid ongoing bullish trend signals.

Retail demand drives divergence as institutions exit amid Fed uncertainty

Silver experienced extreme volatility in recent sessions, with large fluctuations driven by sustained retail and speculative demand, especially in Asia where physical silver remains highly sought after. Since mid-December 2025, institutional investors have reduced their holdings in silver ETFs, leading to net outflows of nearly 29 million troy ounces and highlighting the divergence between institutional and retail activity. Macroeconomic uncertainty, including upcoming US Federal Reserve changes and its decision not to cut interest rates, also contributed to turbulence and a sharp collapse in the gold-to-silver ratio.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, notes that silver's advance above major moving averages may be overextended. He points to the heavy overbought readings in RSI, Stochastic RSI, and CCI as warning signals. The expert sees institutional ETF outflows and abrupt price swings as signs of underlying fragility. He questions whether retail enthusiasm will offset the lack of sustained institutional commitment as macroeconomic uncertainty grows. "With volatility this high and momentum stretched, I remain defensive until $97 proves to be reliable support or retail demand shows resilience over the coming sessions."

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, emphasizes the robust underlying demand for physical silver, especially in Asia. He sees the recent volatility as healthy churn that clears speculators and opens the door for renewed upside. The expert maintains that strong weekly technical signals and persistent retail interest keep the bullish structure intact. "With momentum confirmed across key indicators and a clear bullish trend, I expect further growth and see multiple opportunities for strategic entries above $97."

Jainam Mehta, market strategist, notes the ongoing divergence between institutional and retail positioning as a tactical cue. He believes price action around $110 and $121 will be critical for trend continuation or mean reversion. The expert highlights that high volatility and overbought indicators may present contrarian opportunities if downside gaps deepen. "If silver closes below $97, I would look for tactical short setups, but a breakout above $110 could quickly fuel renewed momentum."

Momentum holds as overbought readings combine with fresh selling pressure

Nearest dynamic support for XAG sits at $97.12 (Ichimoku Kijun), with additional support levels at the 20-day and 50-day moving averages. Resistance is likely near the $110 round figure and the 50-day moving average, which may act as barriers if buyers try to regain momentum. Momentum indicators like MACD and ADX on the daily chart suggest strong upward strength persists, but oscillators including RSI at 82.80, Stochastic RSI at 97.53, and CCI at 137.66 signal heavily overbought conditions. BBP confirms buyers were in control until a decisive downside gap appeared, while volatility remains high and sellers are dominating the current session.

Last time, analysts noted that Silver experienced a sharp decline but remains firmly above major moving averages, reflecting an ongoing bullish trend despite intensified volatility and overbought technical signals such as an elevated RSI and strong MACD momentum. Support is identified near $97, while resistance is seen around $120, suggesting the asset may consolidate within a broad trading range amid mixed short-term momentum cues.

Source of Data: XAG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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