Strategy stock price forecast: Downside risk remains high as MSTR slides below $150

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Strategy slides 4.86% to $142.44 today

Highlights

Strategy expanded its Bitcoin holdings above 712,000 BTC, acquiring over 2,900 BTC through additional equity and preferred stock issuance.
UBS Group raised its stake in Strategy to 5.76 million shares ($805 million), as unrealized losses exceed $900 million due to recent Bitcoin declines.
MSTR trades below key moving averages (MA-20 $162.34, MA-50 $168.62, MA-200 $307.14), with bearish momentum and expected range $135.00–$150.00.

Unrealized losses rise as Bitcoin holdings and capital raising expand

Strategy has expanded its Bitcoin treasury significantly, recently acquiring over 2,900 BTC through additional equity and preferred stock issuance, lifting total holdings above 712,000 BTC. The company raised its Stretch (STRC) preferred stock dividend rate by 25 basis points to 11.25%, marking its sixth increase since July 2025 as part of ongoing capital-raising initiatives amid market pressure. Recent declines in Bitcoin's value have led to over $900 million in unrealized losses for the company, and UBS Group has increased its stake in Strategy to 5.76 million shares, valued at around $805 million.

Bearish momentum prevails amid oversold signals and intraday volatility

Momentum indicators show persistent weakness, with both MACD and ADX signaling a bearish trend. RSI is in a selling zone, and Stochastic RSI and CCI suggest oversold conditions, but Bull/Bear Power clearly favors sellers, confirming dominance of negative momentum. The Awesome Oscillator reinforces the bearish bias. The stock opened with a notable gap down from the previous close and currently trades mid-range after a volatile session, with intraday swings remaining high and pressure evident since the open, confirming downward momentum in line with technical signals.

Downside risk persists as bearish indicators outweigh rebound odds

For the coming week, the expected trading range is a typical volatility band of $135.00 – $150.00. The probability of a price increase remains very low (less than 20%), making further declines more likely with the continued bearish configuration of weekly and daily indicators. The baseline scenario calls for sideways movement between $135.00 and $150.00. A decisive breakout above $150.00 would challenge dynamic resistance near $164.78, while a move below $135.00 could accelerate declines if support fails, as sellers remain in control.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, analyst at Traders Union, notes that Strategy is showing persistent downside across multiple timeframes. He sees strong institutional interest, with UBS Group significantly increasing its stake despite continuing market pressure and unrealized crypto losses. The expert points to Strategy’s active capital-raising and large Bitcoin treasury as signals of ongoing commitment to the digital asset theme. Downward momentum is entrenched, but a breakout above $150.00 could quickly shift sentiment. "While seller pressure dominates now, I remain optimistic that institutional backing and continued strategic expansion position Strategy for upside once market sentiment stabilizes."

Previously it was reported that Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, Norges Bank Investment Management (NBIM), increased its indirect Bitcoin exposure by 149% in 2025, raising its holdings to 9,573 BTC, though this accounts for just under 0.04% of total assets and comes amid recent Bitcoin price declines. Despite short-term price volatility and a lack of direct holdings, NBIM’s deliberate weighting reflects continued institutional support for Bitcoin as part of a diversified strategy, with exposure concentrated through stakes in major crypto-related companies.

Source of Data: MSTR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.