Amazon stock: Job restructuring and AI capex drive a 3.7% dip before Q4 results

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Amazon slides 3.70% to $224.37 today

Highlights

Amazon will report Q4 2025 earnings after market close on February 5, with investor focus on its $125 billion AI and data center capex for 2025 and further increases in 2026.
As part of ongoing restructuring under CEO Andy Jassy, Amazon has eliminated tens of thousands of white-collar jobs to improve operational efficiency, while Amazon Web Services drives growth through AI partnerships and custom chips.
AMZN trades at $224.37, below MA-20 ($239.80) and MA-50 ($233.58), just above MA-200 ($222.72) support, with high volatility and a likely $220.00–$230.00 range in the next five days.

AI investments and restructuring shape sentiment ahead of earnings report

Amazon is set to report its fourth-quarter 2025 earnings after the market closes on February 5, with investor focus on the company's heavy capital expenditures for artificial intelligence and data center infrastructure, including a raised 2025 capex guidance to $125 billion and further increases planned for 2026. The ongoing restructuring has resulted in tens of thousands of white-collar job cuts under CEO Andy Jassy, aimed at improving operational efficiency. Amazon Web Services remains a primary growth driver, particularly through AI partnerships and the adoption of Amazon’s custom AI chips.

Seller dominance intensifies amid mixed momentum and high volatility

Momentum signals are mixed on the daily chart, with the MACD indicating strong buying interest, but the ADX remains neutral, highlighting a lack of strong trend. Oscillators including RSI, Stochastic RSI, CCI, and Bull/Bear Power all point to oversold and bearish conditions, emphasizing seller dominance in the current session. The daily price fell $8.62 or 3.70%, opening with a gap lower (previous close $232.99, today’s open $224.92), and the current price is near the low end of today’s range ($222.51 – $226.07). This reflects high intraday volatility and clear downside pressure after the open, and the Awesome Oscillator remains neutral and does not reinforce today’s move.

Narrow range expected as upside probability rises on low bearish risk

For the next five trading days, the expected range is approximately $220.00 – $230.00, adjusted for current volatility. The probability of a price increase is high (more than 80%), while the chance of further decline is very low (less than 20%). In the baseline scenario, AMZN is likely to stay within a sideways corridor around $224 – $228. A bullish outcome would see the price reclaiming and holding above $237, pushing toward the upper part of the weekly range, while a bearish break below the MA-200 near $223 could lead to a test of the $220 level before buyers potentially step in.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees Amazon as technically weak in the short and medium term, despite long-term support holding for now. He notes that earnings risks and heavy AI capex add to market caution, while recent price action reflects strong selling and a lack of upward momentum. The analyst remains wary of renewed declines if $223 breaks, especially given oversold and volatile conditions. "Until the price reclaims $237 and signals trend reversal, I remain cautious and see any upside as vulnerable to further selling pressure."

Last time, analysts noted that Amazon.com, Inc. is trading just below its short-term moving average but remains above key medium- and long-term moving averages, indicating mild short-term selling pressure amid a broadly bullish trend. Current technicals reflect a sideways bias with support near $235 and resistance at $247, while momentum indicators signal consolidation with a moderate bullish outlook unless immediate support is breached.

Source of Data: AMZN Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.