Barrick Gold sees a jump — What is fueling the token rise

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Barrick Gold rises 2.96% today

Highlights

Barrick Gold delivered Q4 2025 adjusted net earnings of $1.75 billion and $6.0 billion revenue, significantly surpassing analyst forecasts.
The board declared a record Q4 dividend of $0.42 per share, raised 140% quarter-over-quarter, and announced a 50% free cash flow shareholder return policy.
Barrick Gold (ABX) trades at $61.91, below key MA-20 and MA-50 resistances, with a five-day expected range between $63.46 and $66.14.

Dividend surge and asset spinoff as earnings beat expectations

Barrick Gold reported strong fourth-quarter 2025 earnings, with adjusted net earnings of $1.75 billion and revenue of $6.0 billion, both well above analyst expectations. The board approved a record Q4 dividend of $0.42 per share, marking a notable 140% increase from the previous quarter, and introduced a new policy returning 50% of attributable free cash flow to shareholders through a combined base and annual top-up dividend. The company also revealed plans to spin off its North American gold assets into a new public company, while confirming that share buybacks will not be renewed and outlining mixed operational results with Mali operations suspended and copper output increasing.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees persistent short- and medium-term selling pressure on Barrick Gold despite strong earnings and a generous dividend increase. The technical setup remains fragile with oversold signals not yet translating into sustained momentum. He notes the North American asset spin-off raises execution risks and Mali operational suspensions underscore geopolitical challenges. The absence of renewed buybacks also limits shareholder support, even as long-term moving averages offer some buffer to sharp declines. "I remain cautious on ABX given its vulnerability to further pullbacks, as short-term sentiment and critical operational risks outweigh the recent positive earnings surprise."

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, views Barrick Gold’s recent results as a catalyst for renewed investor confidence. He highlights strong earnings outperformance, a record Q4 dividend, and a bold new capital return strategy as major positives. The planned spin-off and rising copper output also expand growth potential and portfolio flexibility. With the weekly chart showing a high probability of near-term gains, the bullish structure remains intact. "This market offers multiple robust setups, and I expect further growth as Barrick demonstrates commitment to shareholder value and strategic progress."

Oversold signals and upward gap raise prospect of brief rebound

Daily momentum is mixed: ADX (27.65) indicates moderate selling pressure, while MACD is neutral. RSI (38.12) and Stoch RSI signal oversold conditions, further confirmed by CCI (-191.65) and BBP (-1.96), pointing to sellers dominating intraday action. The Awesome Oscillator aligns with the trend, reinforcing current weakness. Today’s session opened with a gap above the previous close and has seen a 2.96% gain, with the price near the top of today’s range, indicating moderate volatility and strength toward recent highs. Divergences between oversold oscillators and today's upward move suggest a potential for a short-lived technical rebound, but momentum remains uncertain.

Last time, analysts noted that Barrick Gold Corporation is experiencing short-term bearish pressure as it trades below its 20-day moving average but remains above the key 50- and 200-day averages, reflecting intact medium- and long-term bullish trends. Despite mixed technical signals—MACD indicating renewed buying strength and oscillators showing oversold conditions—key support is seen near the 50-day average, with immediate resistance at the Ichimoku Kijun and upper trading range.

Source of Data: ABX Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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