WTI price forecast: Oil edges higher despite OPEC+ supply concerns
Oil prices experienced a slight rebound on Monday, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rising above $67 per barrel after hitting a near two-year low of $66.40 on March 6. The price recovery comes amid a weaker U.S. dollar and bargain hunting by energy traders, but concerns remain over OPEC+ supply increases and weak Chinese demand.
Saudi Arabia announced a reduction in official selling prices (OSPs) for April, reflecting weaker global demand. The price cut of $0.40 per barrel for Arab Light crude into Asia follows growing uncertainty over the oil market balance. Meanwhile, Chinese crude imports fell 3.4% year-over-year, with February purchases dropping to 10.4 million barrels per day (bpd), below December’s 11.3 million bpd.
Adding to the bearish sentiment, the ongoing U.S.-China trade war and tariffs on Canada and Mexico have heightened concerns over fuel consumption. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) is set to release its latest U.S. oil and gas production outlook on Tuesday, followed by OPEC’s monthly oil market report on Wednesday and the International Energy Agency (IEA) report on Thursday.
USOIL price movement (July 2024 - March 2025) Source: TradingView.
Oil price forecast: Can WTI hold above $67?
Despite the recovery, market sentiment remains fragile. Speculative positioning in Brent Crude declined by 61,121 lots, the lowest since December, indicating a lack of bullish momentum. Moreover, OPEC+ is set to increase oil production in April, further pressuring prices.
Technically, WTI faces resistance near $68.50, while key support lies at $66.40. If the price breaks below this level, further downside toward $65 is likely. However, a sustained move above $67.50 could signal a reversal, pushing WTI back toward $70 per barrel.
As noted earlier, WTI has remained under pressure due to tariff uncertainties and OPEC+ output hikes. The recent rebound is driven by dollar weakness and bargain buying, but traders remain cautious ahead of key economic reports this week.
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