Apple stock price prediction: technical weakness amid AI challenges

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Apple stock price prediction

Market Context: AI Feature Delays and Analyst Perspectives

Apple's stock has been under pressure due to recent setbacks in its artificial intelligence (AI) strategy. Earlier this month, Apple announced that it would delay the rollout of AI-powered updates to Siri, which were expected to launch alongside the iOS 18.4 update in April or May. This delay has caused significant disappointment among investors and analysts, contributing to the stock’s 16% decline year-to-date in 2025.

Analysts at Citi and Morgan Stanley have responded by lowering their expectations for iPhone sales this year. Citi now expects either no growth or minimal growth from the 230 million iPhones sold in 2024. The AI delay is viewed as a potential setback for Apple's long-term product strategy, with some analysts expressing concern that it reflects broader execution issues within the company.

Despite the negative sentiment, some analysts maintain a positive long-term outlook. Wedbush’s Daniel Ives argues that the current selloff is overdone. He maintains an "Outperform" rating on AAPL with a $325 price target. Ives estimates that the AI delays could push approximately 10 million iPhone shipments into the next fiscal year, starting in October. He still expects Apple to sell between 225 million and 230 million iPhones in the current fiscal year, increasing to between 245 million and 250 million units in fiscal year 2026.

A potential upside catalyst is Apple's anticipated partnership with Alibaba (9988) to bring AI features to the Chinese market. Regulatory approval for this partnership could come as early as June, potentially driving new revenue streams. Ives predicts that Apple's AI services could generate $10 billion annually by 2027.

AAPL Price Prediction and Scenarios

In the near term, Apple’s stock is likely to remain volatile as investors weigh the impact of AI delays against broader market trends. If AAPL holds the immediate support level at $219, a short-term rebound toward the $237 resistance level is possible. A breakout above $237 could open the door to a test of the $247 level.

Conversely, a failure to hold $219 could lead to a decline toward $207. A decisive break below $207 would put the next key support at $197 into play, where stronger buying interest may emerge. The RSI approaching oversold levels increases the chances of a technical bounce, but the overall trend remains bearish unless the stock can regain the 50-day and 200-day moving averages.

Longer-term, successful execution of AI features and the Alibaba partnership could reignite investor confidence and push the stock toward Wedbush’s $325 target. For now, cautious positioning with a focus on key support and resistance levels is advisable.

In January, Apple Inc. appointed long-time executive Kim Vorrath to a senior role in its AI and machine learning division. This move underscores Apple's commitment to advancing AI capabilities and revamping Siri amid rising market competition.

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