+0.82% for US Dollar vs Yen — intraday buyers control despite divergent signals

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US Dollar vs Yen jumps 0.82% today

Highlights

USD/JPY trades at ¥155.90, holding above the MA-20 (¥154.77) and MA-200 (¥152.91), with strong buyer support and moderate volatility.
Three of four weekly signals (RSI, MACD, MA-50) signal 'Buy' or 'Strong Buy,' suggesting over 80% probability for further price increases toward ¥158.00.
Immediate downside risk centers on failure to hold the ¥154.80–¥155.00 support area, potentially triggering a move down towards ¥153.00.

Mixed momentum and divergent oscillators as intraday buying prevails

Momentum signals show a divergent picture: the D1 MACD is flashing "Strong Sell," while the ADX remains neutral at 16.87. Oscillator divergence is evident with the RSI just under neutral at 48.29, Stochastic RSI in overbought territory above 80, and CCI sitting neutral. Bull/Bear Power indicates intraday buyer strength, the Awesome Oscillator is flat, and price action remains near the daily high of ¥156.25 within a range from ¥154.97. Overall, price gaps up at the open and sustained buying dominates despite mixed indicator signals and moderate volatility.

Upside continuation favored with breakout risk on bullish weekly signals

Over the next five trading days, USD/JPY is expected to trade in a typical volatility band of ¥153.00 to ¥158.00, with the current price positioned centrally in this range. With most weekly signals (RSI, MACD, MA-50) in "Buy" or "Strong Buy" territory, a continuation above ¥155.90 is highly probable. The base case sees the pair consolidating between ¥153.00 and ¥158.00 with steady momentum; a bullish breakout could see a push toward ¥158.00, whereas a dip below ¥154.80 – ¥155.00 may trigger a move down to ¥153.00.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, believes the current USD/JPY setup reflects ongoing bullish sentiment and robust macro support. He sees price action firmly anchored above key moving averages, with momentum mixed but leaning positively due to sustained buyer interest. Analyst notes that despite diverging oscillator signals, steady range trading and dominance of buying activity suggest a likely continuation higher toward ¥158.00. In his view, the risk of a significant pullback is moderate as long as support near ¥154.80 holds. "If we stay above ¥155.00, I expect USD/JPY to push for new highs in the coming days."

Previously it was reported that USD/JPY is trading below its short- and medium-term moving averages but remains above longer-term support, signaling ongoing downward pressure with an intact long-term uptrend. Mixed momentum signals—bearish daily MACD and RSI alongside bullish intraday indicators—suggest short-term upside potential, though follow-through may be limited without stronger confirmation.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.