What is behind MercadoLibre recent drop in value today

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MercadoLibre slides 9.19% to $1,745

Highlights

MercadoLibre's Q4 2025 revenue surged 44.6% year-over-year to $8.76 billion, beating estimates, while net profit dropped 12.5% due to ongoing investments.
GAAP EPS of $11.03 missed analyst expectations and declined from $12.61 a year earlier, as the company allocated more to credit, logistics, shipping, and artificial intelligence.
MELI trades well below its MA-20, MA-50, and MA-200, with a bearish trend, high volatility, and key resistance at $2,095.46; the short-term price rebound probability is under 20%.

Profit decline and investment spending weigh despite revenue growth

MercadoLibre reported its fourth quarter and full-year 2025 financial results, with Q4 revenue at $8.76 billion, a 44.6% increase year-over-year and above Wall Street estimates. Net profit declined by 12.5%, with GAAP earnings per share of $11.03 coming in below analyst projections and down from $12.61 a year earlier. The company attributed the drop in profitability to ongoing investments in credit, logistics, shipping operations, and artificial intelligence. Reports also noted increased MELI holdings by Absoluto Partners in Q4 2025, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, views MercadoLibre's current position as technically weak and fundamentally strained. He notes the price has sharply deviated below all major moving averages and momentum indicators remain deeply negative. The miss on GAAP EPS and falling net profit, despite rising revenue, signal risks from ongoing investments and margin compression. Buyer sentiment shows little sign of recovery amid persistent selling. "Until MELI clears $2,095.46 with sustained volume, I see limited upside and heightened risk of further downside," Kharitonov warns.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, remains constructive despite the sharp sell-off. He highlights robust revenue growth and notes that institutional investors like Absoluto Partners are increasing exposure to MELI. Investment in logistics and artificial intelligence is framed as a long-term bullish driver. Karapetjanc believes multiple recovery setups are possible if technical resistance is breached. "I see structural tailwinds and expect further growth if the market regains confidence above $2,095.46," states Karapetjanc.

Multiple technical levels breached as bearish signals overwhelm oscillators

MELI is trading well below its MA-20 ($2,053.68), MA-50 ($2,057.13), and MA-200 ($2,267.38), which signals persistent pressure from sellers across all timeframes. The nearest dynamic resistance is the Ichimoku Kijun level at $2,095.46, while there is no significant nearby support above the current price. Momentum indicators point to prevailing bearishness, as both MACD and ADX signal selling pressure with weak trend strength. Oversold readings on CCI and BBP, alongside RSI in the lower 30s and a strong buy from Stoch RSI, suggest the stock is deeply oversold with mixed short-term relief signals. The Awesome Oscillator confirms a negative trend. MELI opened at $1,748.95, showing a large gap down from the previous close of $1,922.56, and is trading near today’s low of $1,671.72. Intraday volatility is high and the session remains under strong selling pressure with little evidence of a rebound. While some oscillators point to possible oversold bounces, overall momentum and price action confirm sustained bearish sentiment, presenting a clear divergence.

Last time, analysts noted that MercadoLibre Inc. posted a daily gain but continues to trade below all major moving averages, with technical momentum indicators (RSI, MACD, ADX) remaining bearish despite oversold signals, confirming persistent downward pressure. Immediate resistance is identified near the Ichimoku Kijun, while support lies around $1,850, with the asset likely to remain range-bound amid prevailing skepticism over margin durability following the recent earnings miss.

Source of Data: MELI Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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