GE Aerospace stock forecast for 2030: $190B backlog conversion and 21% margin expansion target $650

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LEAP engine dominance & backlog growth

Highlights

GE Aerospace stock trades near $341 after a 70% one-year rally, hitting an all-time high of $344.30.
Backlog surged $20B to $190B as LEAP deliveries jumped 28% to 1,800 engines.
2030 upside toward $500–650 depends on LEAP share above 76% and sustained aftermarket conversion.

Chairman and CEO Larry Culp mentioned in the Q4 2025 earnings call that the company anticipates mid-teens revenue growth compounded annually from 2024 to 2026. The GE stock is currently trading around $341, with a market cap exceeding $359 billion, reflecting a rise of over 70% in the past year. It hit an all-time high of $344.30 on February 20. With a trailing earnings ratio of approximately 46x, GE Aerospace is positioned for ongoing success.

GE Aerospace posted Q4 2025 adjusted revenue of $11.9 billion, up 20% year over year, beating estimates of $11.26 billion. Adjusted EPS hit $1.57, a 19% increase, above the $1.43 consensus. Full-year revenue grew 21%. EPS rose 38% to $6.37. Free cash flow reached $7.7 billion with over 100% conversion. The backlog grew nearly $20 billion in a single year to approximately $190 billion.

Major contract wins cement LEAP dominance

The past six weeks produced a volume of major contract wins. United Airlines ordered 300 GEnx engines to power Boeing 787 Dreamliners. American Airlines locked in LEAP-1A engines through 2032. On February 24, the Defense Logistics Agency awarded GE Aerospace a contract to manage J85 engine readiness for the U.S. Air Force's T-38 fleet, partnering with Palantir to deploy AI-driven logistics.

At the Dubai Airshow in late 2025, GE Aerospace received over 500 engine wins, including commitments from Riyadh Air for 120 LEAP-1A engines and flydubai for 60 GEnx engines. Pegasus Airlines signed an agreement for up to 300 LEAP-1B engines to support their future Boeing 737-10 fleet.

Pratt & Whitney troubles accelerate LEAP market share gains

On February 19, Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury said he is not happy with the low volume that Pratt & Whitney has promised for 2026, calling it not enough. Faury said that Airbus has started a process to deal with contract disputes with Pratt & Whitney. Faury said that Airbus might have to park fully assembled planes in 2026 while they wait for engines.

The LEAP engine has about 76% of the market for the Airbus A320neo family, while the Pratt & Whitney GTF engine has about 24%. The GTF's durability problems at Pratt & Whitney, such as shorter shop visit cycles and a multi-year recall program, are making airlines more likely to choose the LEAP.

For 2026, GE Aerospace guided to adjusted EPS of $7.10 to $7.40, operating profit of $9.85 billion to $10.25 billion, and free cash flow of $8.0 billion to $8.4 billion. LEAP deliveries are expected to increase 15% in 2026, targeting approximately 2,000 engines. GE also raised its quarterly dividend 30.6% to $0.47 per share.

Defense deliveries jumped 30% in 2025. Q4 defense orders surged 61%. The GEK1500 engine for unmanned Collaborative Combat Aircraft and the Palantir partnership for AI-driven defense logistics position GE at the intersection of autonomous platforms and predictive maintenance.

Based on consensus estimates and forward earnings projections reflected across major tracking platforms such as GE stock Yahoo, analysts remain focused on backlog monetization and margin durability.

Recently, GE Aerospace stock tested resistance near $344 after hitting all-time highs on February 20 before pulling back to $341 as investors weighed whether 46x earnings multiples can sustain with Pratt & Whitney troubles accelerating LEAP market share toward monopoly levels.

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