Natural gas price forecast: Futures slip toward $2.8 as bearish structure tightens
U.S. natural gas futures are currently trading around $2.84 per MMBtu, continuing a downward trend that has wiped out the last traces of the winter rally. After reaching a peak of nearly $7.5 in February, the contract has sharply declined, now sitting well below key technical levels with momentum leaning downward.
Highlights
- Natural gas trades near $2.84, below all major daily EMAs in a clear downtrend
- Support sits at $2.80, with $2.60 and $2.50 as next structural levels.
- Long-term LNG demand remains strong, but rising U.S. supply weighs on outlook.
The daily chart reflects a clean bearish alignment. The 20-day EMA at $3.23, the 50-day at $3.59, the 100-day at $3.69 and the 200-day at $3.62 are all positioned above current price. This stacked configuration underscores persistent selling pressure and confirms that rallies into the $3.2 to $3.6 zone have been met with supply.
NG price dynamics (Source: TradingView)
The broader pattern since the February spike resembles a classic blowoff and unwind. Price failed to sustain levels above $4.5, then broke through $3.8 and ultimately slipped back under $3. The sequence of lower highs and lower lows remains intact, signaling that the market has transitioned from weather-driven volatility to a supply-focused recalibration.
Momentum indicators support that view. RSI near 39 remains below the 50 midline and shows no bullish divergence. While not deeply oversold, the indicator suggests room for further downside before a more durable base forms.
Immediate attention centers on $2.8. A decisive daily close below that level would expose $2.6 and then $2.5, the latter marking a significant base from late 2025. A breach of $2.5 could open the way toward the $2.3 to $2.2 zone, where buyers previously stepped in.
Supply expansion tempers long-term demand narrative
Fundamentally, the LNG demand story remains constructive over the long term. Venture Global recently signed a 20-year agreement for 1.5 million tonnes per annum with Hanwha Aerospace, bringing its contracted portfolio above 46 mtpa. Cheniere doubled quarterly profit to $2.3 billion and expanded its buyback program beyond $10 billion, targeting record exports of 51 to 52 mtpa this year.
However, forward guidance also points to softer global LNG pricing from 2026 as additional U.S. supply enters the market. New liquefaction trains and rising cargo volumes are expected to ease tightness, a dynamic that aligns with the current technical weakness in domestic futures.
As previously discussed, natural gas has struggled to sustain rebounds once the winter premium fades. Until futures reclaim the 20-day EMA at $3.23 and establish traction above $3.60, the prevailing bias remains skewed toward selling strength rather than buying dips.
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