Merck stock forecast for 2030: Can division overhaul and late-stage surge push MRK to $180?

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MRK division split pipeline

Highlights

Merck trades at $123.82, up 3.8% Friday and roughly 18% year-to-date within the ascending channel near upper resistance.
Stock could reach $160-200 by 2030 if $70B pipeline converts and Keytruda extensions push patent cliff past 2029.
MRK posted Q4 EPS of $2.04 beating estimates, flooded the market with kidney cancer data, split pharma division in two, but faces $2.5B generic headwinds.

The restructuring shows that Merck wants to expand beyond Keytruda as its key patents are about to run out. Merck has tripled its pipeline since 2021 and bought Cidara Therapeutics and Verona Pharma in deals worth about $10 billion last year to add to its portfolio. A senior vice president at Novare Capital Management said that the company now has more options for separating or spinning off one of these businesses in the future.

The stock closed Friday at $123.82, up 18% year-to-date. The rally came after a weekend burst of late-stage kidney cancer trial data. This is Merck operating with maximum urgency. The 2028 Keytruda patent cliff is no longer a future problem, it is shaping every decision the company makes today.

Late-stage data cascade targets label expansions

The final week of February witnessed one of the most concentrated periods of clinical data releases in Merck's recent history. On Saturday, Merck announced that combining Keytruda with Welireg reduced the risk of disease recurrence or mortality by 28% compared to Keytruda plus placebo in an adjuvant kidney cancer trial. The FDA has taken up Merck's supplemental filings for priority review with a target action date of June 19, 2026.

A day earlier, Welireg plus Lenvima reduced the risk of disease progression or death by 30% compared to cabozantinib in previously treated advanced renal cell carcinoma. The final analysis of KEYNOTE-B96 showed that Keytruda plus paclitaxel significantly improved overall survival in platinum-resistant recurrent ovarian cancer. Separately, Keytruda plus Padcev reduced event-free survival events by 47% and deaths by 35% in cisplatin-eligible muscle-invasive bladder cancer.

Moderna and Merck reported median five-year follow-up data showing that the personalized mRNA cancer vaccine plus Keytruda reduced the risk of recurrence or death by 49% versus Keytruda alone in patients with resected high-risk stage III/IV melanoma. If approved, this would be the first mRNA cancer vaccine.

Q4 beat clouded by 2026 guidance miss

Q4 adjusted EPS came in at $2.04, ahead of the $2.01 consensus. Revenue rose 5% year over year to $16.4 billion, topping estimates of $16.19 billion.Moreover, for full-year 2025, worldwide sales reached $65.0 billion, up 1%. Keytruda generated $31.7 billion in annual sales, a 7% increase. Additionally, Winrevair contributed $1.4 billion while Gardasil sales fell sharply to $5.2 billion, down 39% for the year.

Merck guided 2026 revenue of $65.5 billion to $67.0 billion. Analysts expected $67.6 billion. Adjusted EPS guidance of $5.00 to $5.15 fell short of the $5.36 consensus. The guidance includes a one-time charge of approximately $9 billion related to the Cidara Therapeutics acquisition. The 2026 outlook also reflects an estimated $2.5 billion headwind from generic competition for the Januvia family and IRA price setting.

CEO Rob Davis framed the outlook: Merck now has line of sight to over $70 billion of potential commercial opportunity by the mid-2030s, $20 billion more than just a year ago. Management outlined that by the mid-2030s, new oncology medicines could contribute approximately $25 billion, new cardiometabolic drugs approximately $15 billion, and new immunology/HIV treatments approximately $10 billion.

Recently, Merck rallied from $115 to $123.82 after splitting its pharma division and releasing weekend kidney cancer data showing 28% risk reduction, with the stock testing upper channel resistance as investors weighed whether 80 active Phase 3 trials can offset the 2028 Keytruda patent cliff.

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