National Grid stock falls 3.54% as overbought technical signals meet short-term selling pressure

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National Grid slides 3.54% to $1,350.50

Highlights

National Grid upgraded its five-year financial framework to fiscal 2031, targeting 8–10% annual underlying EPS growth from fiscal 2026 and over £70 billion cumulative capital investment.
For fiscal 2027, adjusted EPS is forecast to rise 13–15% on higher allowed revenue under RIIO-T3, with dividend policy tracking UK CPIH inflation.
Technically, National Grid trades above MA-20, MA-50, and MA-200, with next week's expected range at $1,325.00–$1,375.00 and bullish momentum dominating.

Earnings targets raised amid regulatory clarity and high investment plans

National Grid upgraded its five-year financial framework through fiscal 2031, formally accepting the RIIO-T3 regulatory structure for its UK electricity transmission unit. The company established a target for underlying earnings per share growth of 8–10% per year from the fiscal 2026 baseline, supported by plans for cumulative capital investments totaling at least £70 billion through 2031. For fiscal 2027, adjusted earnings per share are forecast to rise by 13–15% under higher allowed revenue in the updated regulatory period, while the dividend policy will continue to track UK CPIH inflation. Momentum and long-term investment strategy were reaffirmed, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Bullish structure persists despite selling pressure and overbought signals

The current price of National Grid ($1,350.50) sits above the MA-20 ($1,340.53), MA-50 ($1,243.31), and MA-200 ($1,122.27), signaling a continued bullish structure across short, medium, and long timeframes. The Ichimoku Kijun at $1,302.00 is below the current price and acts as immediate support. Momentum remains positive on the daily timeframe, with both MACD and ADX indicating robust bullish momentum, though the daily movement has seen a pullback. Despite a gap down at the open, the price now trades near the lower end of today’s range, and intraday volatility has been high. Overbought signals from the RSI and Commodity Channel Index suggest caution, while Bull/Bear Power indicates buyer dominance but is countered by short-term oscillators and Hull Moving Average turning bearish, highlighting a divergence as intraday tone shifted to selling pressure after the open.

Sideways move likely as breakout risks shape near-term outlook

For the next week, the expected trading range is adjusted to $1,325.00 — $1,375.00 to align with typical blue-chip volatility. The probability of a price increase is very high (more than 80%), given that all weekly trend indicators signal upward momentum; a decline is considered much less likely. The baseline scenario envisions sideways movement within this range. The bullish case sees a breakout above $1,375.00, targeting renewed strength, while a bearish scenario would unfold if the price drops below $1,325.00, opening the path to further correction.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees National Grid holding a bullish technical setup above all major moving averages despite today’s drop. He notes positive momentum and strong long-term guidance after the RIIO-T3 adoption and lofty capital plans, but cautions that recent price action has shifted to selling pressure with overbought readings. The analyst stays focused on the $1,325.00 — $1,375.00 range, as caution is warranted while short-term signals diverge from the broader trend. "Until bulls reclaim $1,375.00 with conviction, I remain on the sidelines despite the long-term positives."

Previously it was reported that National Grid plc is maintaining strong bullish momentum, trading well above key moving averages, with MACD and ADX confirming sustained buying strength. However, major oscillators such as RSI, Stoch RSI, and CCI indicate pronounced overbought conditions, highlighting the risk of a short-term pullback despite robust upward trends and dynamic support at the Ichimoku Kijun.

Source of Data: NG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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