WTI crude oil price forecast: Crisis rally pushes crude past $100 as Middle East supply collapses

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WTI crude oil above $100

Highlights

WTI breaks beyond $100 just after rising over 13% in one session.
Middle East disruptions reduced output in Iraq, Kuwait and the UAE.
Daily RSI above 90 signals extreme momentum following breakout.

The move came after serious disruptions to Middle Eastern energy supply chains, where instability in the Strait of Hormuz had stopped a key part of global oil shipments from getting through. The rally reflects a rapid repricing of geopolitical supply risk across global energy markets.

With roughly one-fifth of global oil shipments passing through the Strait of Hormuz, disruptions to tanker flows have forced traders to hedge against the possibility of prolonged supply shortages.

Production cuts tighten the physical oil market

Supply problems across the Middle East have worsened rapidly. Production in Iraq’s three largest southern oilfields has reportedly fallen some 70 percent, bringing production to about 1.3 million barrels a day, down from approximately 4.3 million before fighting broke out. Kuwait has started to cut production in multiple oilfields and refining sites, while the United Arab Emirates confirmed adjustments to offshore output as storage capacity has become tight.

Those moves come after earlier disruptions to LNG production in Qatar, which put pressure on the wider energy complex. Political developments in Iran have added uncertainty to the stability of the region’s energy infrastructure. Those risks are being quickly factored into crude prices as markets rapidly incorporate them.

Technical breakout confirms crisis-driven momentum

From a chart perspective, the rally represents a dramatic breakout from the consolidation range that dominated crude trading for much of the past two years. WTI opened at about $98 and closed near $101, making a wide expansion candle that broke through the $80 to $85 resistance band that had kept prices down earlier in the year.

Price changes for WTI (Source: TradingView)

Crude is now trading well above its main EMAs. The 20-day EMA is close to $73, the 50-day EMA is close to $66, and the 100- and 200-day EMAs are all close to $64. These kinds of separations usually happen during moves caused by crises, not during normal market trends.

The daily RSI has gone above 90, which is one of the highest readings in years. These kinds of levels often come before consolidation or big drops during the day, but geopolitical rallies can keep the momentum going for a long time.

As previously discussed in earlier WTI analysis, the break above the $80 to $85 resistance zone marked the structural turning point that allowed crude to enter a powerful expansion phase. Once that ceiling gave way, short covering and risk hedging rapidly accelerated the move toward triple-digit prices.

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