WTI price forecast: Geopolitical tensions push crude toward $67 despite inventory surge

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WTI price forecast

Highlights

WTI jumps to $65.29 as Middle East tensions revive supply disruption fears.
API reports a 13.4 million barrel crude build, the largest since November 2023.
Resistance sits at $65–66, with a breakout opening the door to $67–68.

The rally comes even as a sharp rise in U.S. inventories and oversupply warnings cloud the broader outlook.

Crude’s advance reflects how quickly traders reprice risk when shipping lanes in the Middle East appear vulnerable. With prices pushing toward the upper boundary of a long-standing descending channel, the market is now testing a key technical inflection point while digesting conflicting fundamental signals.

Technical momentum strengthens near key resistance

From a technical standpoint, WTI’s structure has improved materially. Prices have broken above both the Parabolic SAR near $61.12 and the Supertrend around $59.02, reinforcing a shift toward bullish momentum. Since bottoming near $55 in late December, crude has formed a sequence of higher lows, gradually reversing the downtrend that dominated much of 2025.

WTI price dynamics (Source: TradingView)

The recent move above the $58–$64 consolidation range suggests base formation is complete. WTI is now pressing against resistance in the $65–66 zone. A sustained move above that level could open a path toward $67–$68, levels last seen in late summer. However, failure to break decisively higher could trigger renewed consolidation.

Geopolitical premium collides with oversupply concerns

The rally’s primary catalyst is escalating friction between Washington and Tehran. Reports indicate the U.S. is considering intercepting Iranian crude shipments and may deploy additional naval assets if nuclear talks collapse. Any disruption to flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which handles roughly 20% of global oil shipments, would have significant market implications.

Yet bearish counterforces are building. The American Petroleum Institute reported a 13.4 million barrel increase in U.S. crude inventories last week, potentially the largest build since late 2023 if confirmed by official data. Such a surge suggests softer domestic demand or rising supply, complicating the bullish narrative.

Market participants are also awaiting OPEC’s monthly outlook and the International Energy Agency’s upcoming assessment. The IEA has previously warned that global supply could exceed demand in 2026, raising the risk of a surplus that would cap sustained price rallies.

For now, crude appears caught between geopolitical risk and structural oversupply fears. Traders are weighing immediate disruption risks against longer-term balance sheets.

As previously discussed, WTI had already broken above its descending trendline and reclaimed key momentum indicators earlier this month, signaling a shift away from last year’s bearish structure. The latest surge reinforces that transition, but inventory data and supply projections remain critical constraints on how far the rally can extend.

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