Natural gas price forecast: Gas rebounds toward $3.5 as Qatar LNG shutdown tightens global supply

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Natural gas price forecast

LNG disruption fuels rebound

The rise is part of worries that problems with LNG shipments from the Middle East will make supply tighter in Asia and Europe in the next few weeks. Analysts say it could take several weeks to get Qatar's full export capacity back, even if tensions between countries calm down quickly. Natural gas is trying to build a base again after a sharp drop that happened after the price rose to almost $7 in January.

Highlights

Natural gas rebounds toward $3.36 after defending the $3 support region.
Qatar LNG shutdown threatens roughly 20% of global export supply.
$3.5–$3.6 resistance cluster is now the key breakout zone for prices.

That earlier surge was fueled by panic hedging as traders moved to price in supply risk. Once the immediate fears faded, prices retraced sharply as speculative positions unwound. The recent recovery from the $2.9–$3 area suggests buyers are stepping in near a long-term ascending trendline that has supported the market since late summer.

Technical structure shows stabilization but resistance remains

In technical view, natural gas is showing early signs of stabilization, but the overall structure continues to encounter strong resistance. At the moment, the market is testing the 20-day EMA near $3.17, but has not yet pierced the intense resistance clustering as seen in the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day averages between roughly $3.49 and $3.63.

Natural gas price dynamics (Source: TradingView)

The momentum indicators show the drift towards a more even market. The daily RSI is back to about 52, after tumbling into oversold territory in the recent selloff. That indicates the selling pressure has abated and indicates that the recent rebound may be indicative of a consolidation phase rather than a temporary bounce in the market.

From a technical standpoint, natural gas is showing early signs of stabilization but the broader structure still faces significant resistance. The market is currently testing the 20-day EMA near $3.17 while remaining below the heavier resistance cluster formed by the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day averages between roughly $3.49 and $3.63.

Qatar LNG shutdown reshapes global gas outlook

Basic changes are also helping the recovery. Qatar exports about one-fifth of the world's LNG. If there is a problem with its export capacity, it will have a big effect on the international gas market. Shipping routes around the Strait of Hormuz have been messed up, which has stopped LNG shipments from leaving Ras Laffan and made QatarEnergy stop liquefaction operations.

Restarting liquefaction facilities is a slow process that requires carefully cooling equipment before full production resumes. As a result, even if geopolitical tensions ease quickly, analysts expect global gas markets to remain tight for several weeks.

As previously discussed in earlier natural gas market analysis, the $3 region has been a critical structural support level. Holding above this zone keeps the longer-term base formation intact and leaves the market vulnerable to a rebound if supply risks intensify.

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