Gold edges higher as US and Israel strikes on Iran drive safe-haven demand

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Gold rises 0.70% today to $5,119

Highlights

US and Israel strikes on Iran sharply increased geopolitical risk, driving demand for gold as a defensive asset.
Risks to oil supply from Strait of Hormuz disruptions and new US tariffs are fueling inflation and complicating central bank policy, sustaining gold buying by official sector.
Gold is consolidating between $5,060 and $5,285, with technical indicators mixed but odds favoring an upside move if resistance near $5,135 is cleared.

Geopolitical escalation and policy shifts drive safe-haven flows

On February 28, the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran, causing immediate volatility in gold prices and driving investors toward safe-haven assets. Prolonged geopolitical tensions have repeatedly threatened the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting nearly 20% of global oil shipments and fueling inflationary pressures that have complicated central bank responses. The US administration’s imposition of universal 10% tariffs under Section 122 has further heightened global trade uncertainty and lent additional upward pressure on gold as a defensive asset. Central banks continue to prioritize gold purchases and reserve diversification in response to mounting macroeconomic and geopolitical risk, particularly as the Federal Reserve signals a delay in interest rate cuts to contain inflation and preserve financial system liquidity. The persistent volatility in the oil and energy markets, initiated by the Iran conflict and associated regional instability, is increasing demand for gold while simultaneously raising the risk of liquidity-driven asset sales if market strain deepens.

Momentum divergence underscores near-term uncertainty within range

Momentum signals are mixed: MACD on D1 gives a strong buy, suggesting underlying bullish momentum, while ADX is neutral at low values, pointing to a weak trend. Oscillators signal caution, with RSI at 48.27 and CCI at –95.38 both in mild sell territory, and Stoch RSI indicating oversold conditions; meanwhile, BBP shows overbought conditions, highlighting recent buyer dominance but possible near-term exhaustion. AO is neutral and provides no clear confirmation. Today’s session saw an upward gap at the open, with the price moving toward the middle of the $5,058.30 – $5,184.77 range, reflecting moderate volatility and a stable intraday tone following initial strength. The divergence between strong MACD momentum and several oversold oscillator readings highlights near-term uncertainty, with intraday price action not fully reflecting underlying momentum signals. Key levels remain: immediate resistance at the Ichimoku Kijun on D1 ($5,135.51), with support at the SMA-50 ($5,069.92).

High probability of consolidation supported by bullish weekly signals

In the near term, the expected 5-day trading range for XAU is set at $5,060 – $5,285, which falls within a typical volatility band relative to current levels and reflects support from longer-term moving averages. The probability of a price increase is very high (over 80%), supported by strong buy signals from MA-50 W1, RSI W1, ADX W1, and weekly MACD, while the likelihood of a decline remains very low. This main scenario favors consolidation between recent support and resistance levels. A bullish breakout above the Ichimoku resistance near $5,135 could push prices toward the upper band, while a drop below the SMA-50 ($5,069.92) may trigger a near-term correction toward the lower end of the range.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, highlights the conflicting momentum signals and persistent geopolitical risks impacting gold. He sees technical resistance near $5,135.51 and notes ongoing safe-haven demand, but considers the mixed oscillator readings a sign of instability. Until the Ichimoku level is cleared, he remains defensive. "Base case is consolidation unless gold decisively breaks above $5,135 — otherwise, I remain cautious on further upside."

Previously it was reported that gold is consolidating below several short-term moving averages, with the immediate trend appearing neutral to slightly bearish as momentum weakens and the RSI remains near lower levels. Near-term support holds in the $5,050 region, while resistance is clustered between $5,110 and $5,200, with a sustained move outside this range likely required to establish stronger directional conviction.

Source of Data: XAU Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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