+0.50% for Australian Dollar vs US Dollar — Bullish signals drive momentum after policy changes

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Australian dollar gains 0.50% to $0.7109

Highlights

The Reserve Bank of Australia increased its cash rate to 4.1% in March 2025, marking its second hike this year.
Steady Chinese manufacturing growth continues to support demand for Australian commodities, helping stabilize the Australian Dollar.
AUD/USD shows sustained bullish momentum with consolidation expected above $0.7060, likely ranging between $0.7020 and $0.7200 over the next week.

Stable trading as RBA hike offsets China PMI growth

The Reserve Bank of Australia raised the cash rate to 4.1% on March 2025, marking its second hike of the year. Release of recent Chinese manufacturing PMI data showed moderate but stable growth, sustaining demand for Australian commodities. The Australian Dollar has remained stable against the US Dollar following these developments, as traders monitored narrow trading ranges amid ongoing market uncertainty in Asian sessions.

Positive momentum builds as buyers dominate intraday action

Technical signals remain broadly positive for AUD/USD. The pair sits above the key moving averages, confirming bullish alignment across short, medium, and long-term timeframes. Immediate support is seen at the Ichimoku Kijun ($0.7066). Momentum readings are favorable, with RSI at 51.85, supportive Stoch RSI, and a bullish MACD, while Stoch RSI approaches overbought. ADX is subdued on D1 (23.76, Sell) but shows constructive trends on the weekly view. Bull/Bear Power (BBP) indicates strong intraday buyer dominance. The Awesome Oscillator is neutral, and price trades near session highs after a 0.50% rise, reflecting moderate volatility.

Upside bias persists as technicals point to limited risk

Over the next five trading days, AUD/USD is expected to fluctuate within a $0.7020 – $0.7200 volatility band relative to current levels. Upside probability exceeds 80% based on technical momentum, with low downside risk. The primary scenario is sideways consolidation above $0.7060 support. A breakout above $0.7200 could trigger further gains, while a drop below $0.7020 would expose the pair to deeper corrections, though this is less likely with current signals.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees AUD/USD technically well-supported above key moving averages, but remains skeptical of strong upside given subdued ADX and persistent market uncertainty. He notes that recent Reserve Bank of Australia policy and resilient commodity demand offer a cushion, yet price action is likely to stay capped as the pair consolidates. Cautious traders should watch for a decisive move above $0.7200 or below $0.7020 before committing. "Base case is sideways within the established range — until $0.7200 is broken, I stay defensive on fresh longs."

Earlier, analysts noted that AUD/USD was consolidating amid mixed momentum signals, with longer-term bullish undertones emerging. The current bullish alignment across key timeframes and supportive macro developments now reinforce the upside scenario, making a sustained move above $0.7200 a critical threshold for further gains in the days ahead.

Source of Data: AUD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.