Silver falls as sellers dominate ahead of Federal Reserve policy decision

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Silver slides 1.17% today to $78.21

Highlights

Silver stabilized above $79.00 as traders remain cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve policy decision, curbing aggressive moves.
A break below the upward-sloping trendline and trading under the 200-period moving average signal increased downside risk within a broader uptrend context.
Technical momentum and price action remain decisively bearish, with sellers dominating and a high probability of range-bound trading between $77.80 and $79.80 in the near term.

Downside risk emerges as traders await Federal Reserve decision

Silver consolidated above $79.00 during the Asian session as traders awaited the outcome of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting. The asset stabilized within the $79.00 – $79.50 region following a corrective decline, and the break of the upward-sloping trendline from $66.65 around $83.45 suggested downside risk. Broader uptrend pressure was noted with Silver trading below the 200-period Simple Moving Average on the 4-hour chart near $83.00. Investor caution ahead of the Federal Reserve’s decision also influenced recent market activity, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Bearish momentum dominates amid oversold conditions and weak signals

Momentum readings are decisively bearish. Both MACD and ADX on D1 signal further downside, accompanied by oversold conditions on the RSI (40.77), Stoch RSI (0.00), and CCI (–100.90). BBP is deep in negative territory, confirming intraday dominance by sellers. AO reinforces the downside bias.

Downside bias prevails with narrow range and low rally odds

For the coming five trading days, the expected range is $77.80 – $79.80, keeping XAGUSD in a narrow, choppy corridor just below current levels. Probability of a price increase is very low (less than 20%), while a further decline is much more likely. The baseline scenario is for consolidation between support and resistance, with sellers retaining control. If the price rebounds above $79.80 and overcomes resistance, an upside test is possible, but momentum and MA signals make this less probable. If support at $77.80 fails, further downside toward the long-term SMA-200 ($64.57) could accelerate.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, Traders Union expert, sees Silver under pressure as technical and sentiment signals remain negative in the short term. He notes that macro factors, such as the upcoming Federal Reserve decision, are keeping broad market caution elevated. Nonetheless, the metal still enjoys solid long-term support above the 200-day SMA, indicating underlying resilience. While further downside is likely, Karapetjanc expects consolidation to dominate in the coming sessions. "Though sellers have the advantage for now, a decisive policy shift or a strong support reaction could spark a swift recovery in Silver prices."

Previously it was reported that silver faced persistent short- and medium-term selling pressure, with oversold signals and elevated volatility contributing to heightened downside risk. The current technical setup reinforces this bearish outlook and highlights the importance of $77.80 as a pivotal support level, where a decisive break could trigger accelerated losses towards the longer-term trend support.

Source of Data: XAG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.