Silver price sees a dip: what is pressuring the asset

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Silver slides 10.05% today

Highlights

Global silver ETFs saw renewed outflows as shifting US rate expectations and a stronger dollar dampened investor sentiment.
Market volatility in silver remains elevated ahead of the Federal Reserve announcement, with participants reacting to recent inflation data.
Silver trades well below short- and medium-term moving averages, with technical signals showing oversold conditions but a probable stabilization in the $74.35–$74.65 range over the coming sessions.

ETF outflows and Fed anticipation drive volatility and bearish sentiment

Recent news highlighted outflows from global silver ETFs, partially reversing earlier inflows seen this year. Shifting US interest rate expectations and a stronger US dollar were reported, along with broader sentiment changes in commodity markets. Investors awaited the upcoming Federal Reserve monetary policy announcement as market volatility remained elevated amid ongoing reactions to inflation data and central bank signals.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees severe technical and fundamental pressure on silver after today's 10.05% drop. The expert notes persistent downside as XAG trades well below the MA-20 and MA-50, with indicators deeply oversold. Outflows from silver ETFs and shifting sentiment driven by a stronger dollar indicate waning investor confidence. He highlights that momentum and volume both confirm heavy seller dominance. "Given this setup, I remain skeptical about near-term recovery and expect further volatility to the downside if $64.75 fails," says Kharitonov.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, acknowledges sharp short-term pressure but views recent volatility as an opportunity. He points to macro drivers and shifting interest rate dynamics, but emphasizes that weekly indicators support stabilization over further decline. Karapetjanc remains confident that risk of deeper losses is limited, citing the high probability of consolidation above long-term support. "Bullish structure remains intact above $64.75, setting the stage for a potential upside rebound toward $74.65," he states.

Oversold technicals and sustained selling signal high downward momentum

Momentum indicators confirm continued weakness — MACD and ADX on the daily chart both signal downside pressure. All key oscillators (RSI at 36.37, Stoch RSI at zero, CCI at –148.72) reflect clear oversold conditions, while a strongly negative BBP highlights aggressive seller dominance intraday. AO also supports the prevailing downtrend. XAG is sharply lower by $7.63 or 10.05% today, gapping down at the open and holding near the session’s low of $68.45, signaling high volatility and heavy pressure from sellers after the open. Intraday performance is in line with momentum and oscillator signals, which all reinforce the dominant downside tone.

Earlier, analysts noted that silver remained under persistent selling pressure in the short- and medium-term as bearish technicals and macroeconomic uncertainty dominated the outlook. Fresh outflows from silver ETFs and confirmed oversold signals now reinforce this view, making a decisive move above $74.65 or below $64.75 the next key marker for the direction of any breakout or further downside risk in the days ahead.

Source of Data: XAG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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