WTI crude oil price forecast: Strait of Hormuz closure drives sharp rally

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WTI Crude Oil Price Outlook

Highlights

Price is testing whether the $99.77 to $100.75 range holds after the sharp move up from $68.
RSI sits at 57.77 with the signal line at 62.27, still elevated, but the two are converging.
Momentum is losing steam, though the rising EMA structure suggests stability around $94.70 on any pullback.

The 20-period EMA at $99.776 and the 50-period at $98.536 are sitting just under the current price, close enough to act as immediate support. The 100-period at $97.510 and the 200-period at $94.705 sit further below but have been rising steadily since late February. That kind of rising EMA stack under price is generally a healthy sign for the trend, as long as price does not start cutting through them on volume.

WTI Crude Oil price dynamics (March 2026). Source: TradingView.

The move from $68 was not subtle. Price jumped to $118 before the rally paused, then dropped back toward $83 over the following days. What followed was slower. Buyers are quietly coming back in, each dip finding support a little higher than the last, with the EMAs catching up from below. That kind of recovery after a violent spike and reversal tends to be more durable than the initial move, mostly because it shakes out the weak hands before the next leg develops.

Middle East supply disruption adds major upside risk to crude oil outlook

Multiple tankers and vessels have been struck in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman since the conflict started, most of them near the Strait of Hormuz. That waterway moves roughly 20% of the world's crude, and Iran has made clear it intends to keep pressure on it. The $118 spike happened the day Iran hit several energy assets in retaliation for strikes on its South Pars gas field. Prices pulled back after that, but the underlying supply risk did not go away.

The market has been fairly orderly since the initial price spike, which is perhaps a little surprising in light of the disruption being discussed. The market can quickly revert to disorder if the situation escalates.

The technical structure shows a pause after rapid expansion

If WTI continues to hold up over $99.77, another run towards $104 to $106 could be possible, but fresh buying interest will be required to clear this range with conviction. A strong close over $103 will significantly shift the near-term charts.

On the downside, a break below $97.51 would weaken the structure and open the door to a move back toward the 200-period EMA at $94.705. A sustained break below that level would raise more serious questions about whether the recovery from the $68 lows is achievable.

In the previous analysis, it was observed that the $94-$95 zone served as a base following the sharp pullback from the March 7 spike. The grind higher since has confirmed that view, with price recovering steadily above that area, though momentum has not been strong enough to challenge the $118 highs again yet.

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