+0.56% for US Dollar vs South Korean Won as consolidation holds above key averages

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US Dollar vs won gains 0.56% today

Highlights

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield declined as U.S.–Iran diplomatic talks heightened uncertainty regarding future central bank policy decisions.
Rising geopolitical tensions around Iranian threats to shipping lanes have disrupted energy supplies and elevated near-term inflation concerns.
USD/KRW remains in a strong bullish technical setup, with consolidation likely between ₩1,482 and ₩1,495 over the coming week.

Yield retreat and inflation risks rise amid Iran-linked tensions

The Federal Reserve Board has released daily updates on selected US interest rates as of March 20, 2026, providing current data on Treasury yields and the effective federal funds rate. On March 23, 2026, the yield curve and daily rate data remain available for market reference. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has retreated in conjunction with ongoing diplomatic discussions between the United States and Iran. Concerns about Iranian threats to vessel passage through strategic waterways have led to disruptions in global energy supplies, increased oil prices, inflation risks, and uncertainty regarding future central bank interest rate decisions.

Bullish trend persists as momentum wanes near resistance

Technical analysis confirms a strong bullish structure for USD/KRW, as the price remains above all key moving averages (SMA-20, SMA-50, SMA-200). The Ichimoku Kijun level at ₩1,468.54 serves as immediate support, underlining the positive bias. Momentum indicators show robust signals: both MACD and ADX on the daily chart indicate buying activity, while the RSI at 51.81 suggests neutral-to-bullish momentum. However, the Stoch RSI is in oversold territory and CCI is neutral, pointing to a degree of divergence and potential caution for new highs. BBP shows intraday overbought conditions. The session opened with a significant gap up, with current trading consolidating near the midpoint of today’s range, implying initial strength tapering to moderate volatility.

Narrow trading range expected as upside probability dominates

For the next five trading days, the expected price range for USD/KRW is ₩1,482–₩1,495, reflecting a typical volatility band relative to current levels. Sideways consolidation is the baseline scenario, with indicators suggesting more than an 80% probability of continued price strength and only a minor chance of a near-term decline. Continuation above ₩1,495.34 would support a bullish scenario, while a move toward or under ₩1,482 could signal short-term bearish momentum if immediate support fails.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, Traders Union expert, sees continued strength in USD/KRW, supported by broad bullish technicals and macro tailwinds. He believes the pair benefits from global uncertainty around energy markets and central bank policy, which drives flows into the US Dollar. Consolidation above ₩1,495 would keep the momentum positive over the next week. Downside risk appears contained unless support at ₩1,482 fails. "As long as macro uncertainty persists and technical support holds, I expect further resilience in USD/KRW."

Earlier, analysts noted that USD/KRW was exhibiting a persistent bullish trend while cautioning that short-term pullbacks could arise amid economic uncertainties. The latest session reinforces this positive outlook and suggests that traders should watch for a sustained move above the recent consolidation zone, as this could be a catalyst for renewed upside momentum in the coming weeks.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.