+1.37% for Silver as China boosts 2026 silver imports

Traders Union
All News
Financial News
Silver rises 1.37% to $69.98 today

Highlights

Escalating US-Israel-Iran conflict has disrupted global supply chains, pushing crude oil above $110 and intensifying inflation pressures.
Central bank hawkishness and broad capital outflows have driven real yields and the US dollar higher, compounding stress on silver amid risk aversion.
XAG/USD trades below key moving averages with bearish momentum, facing sustained selling pressure and a likely sideways-to-lower range between $66.00 and $73.00.

Capital outflows intensify as geopolitical risk bolsters dollar strength

Ongoing military conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran has led to the effective closure or restriction of the Strait of Hormuz, triggering global supply disruptions, a surge in crude oil prices above $110 per barrel, and sharply elevated inflation risk. In response to these macroeconomic shocks, central banks, including the Federal Reserve, have signaled a willingness to maintain or raise interest rates, pushing real yields higher and driving broad capital outflows from silver and other precious metals. The strengthening US dollar amid crisis-induced risk aversion has compounded the decline in silver prices, making dollar-denominated commodities less accessible for international buyers. Additionally, China has continued to accelerate silver imports, reportedly acquiring over 790 tons in early 2026, fueling global shortage fears despite the prevailing downturn in price. Iran’s official dismissal of de-escalation talks with the US has further worsened risk sentiment, reinforcing a market environment characterized by defensive dollar positioning, liquidity stress, and volatile flows out of silver.

Bearish momentum persists as price diverges from oversold signals

Technically, XAG/USD remains pressured below its SMA-20 ($78.63) and SMA-50 ($81.15), while the SMA-200 at $65.49 provides longer-term support. The Ichimoku Kijun level at $79.35 is immediate resistance. Momentum indicators are mixed: MACD and ADX confirm bearish momentum, RSI is neutral-to-oversold at 33.10, CCI is deeply oversold at –103.97, Stoch RSI is neutral, and BBP shows sellers dominate the daily trend. XAG/USD is trading near today's intraday highs after a volatile range ($66.09 — $70.66), with price strength diverging from some oscillators and momentum readings.

Downside consolidation favored as low upside probability prevails

Over the next five trading days, XAG/USD is expected to remain within a typical volatility band of $66.00 — $73.00. The probability of upward price movement is low (below 20%), favoring a consolidation or downside scenario. A sustained move above resistance at $79.35 could open a bullish reversal, while a drop below the $65.49 support would increase pressure, potentially extending declines if sellers remain in control.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees the current pressure on silver as primarily driven by global macroeconomic turmoil and defensive market sentiment. He notes that while short-term headwinds persist due to higher real yields and a strong US dollar, robust longer-term support above the SMA-200 signals resilience. Karapetjanc believes ongoing geopolitical risk and increased imports into China may eventually support a positive reversal if the $65.49 level holds. "If silver stays above $65.49 and external shocks subside, I expect buyers to regain control and open the way for a new upward trend."

Earlier, analysts noted that silver was under sustained selling pressure, reflecting a bearish technical outlook and heightened macroeconomic uncertainty. With recent geopolitical escalations and intensified capital outflows now exacerbating volatility, traders should closely monitor the $65.49 support level, as a decisive break below it could trigger further downside momentum.

Source of Data: XAG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.