Nio stock price forecast: Technicals stay bullish as NIO slides 3.29% to $5.59

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Nio drops 3.29% today to $5.59

Highlights

Nio achieved its first net profit by reducing costs through in-house chip production and vertical integration to strengthen margins.
Management targets 83,000 deliveries in the first quarter and is broadening subscription offerings via an expanded Alipay partnership and new vehicle launches.
Despite recent selling pressure, technicals suggest a rangebound price outlook between $5.40 and $5.85, with a 75% probability of an upward move but mixed short-term momentum signals.

Margin gains and new partnerships as profit offsets ongoing market pressure

Nio reported its first net profit, supported by cost reductions from producing 550,000 in-house chips and a strategy of vertical integration that improved margins. The company has set a target of 83,000 deliveries for the first quarter and is expanding its subscription-based vehicle portfolio through a larger partnership with Alipay, adding Onvo vehicles and the ES8 SUV to the platform. Undisguised images of the upcoming ES9 SUV were also released ahead of its April 9 debut, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Mixed momentum signals as oscillators diverge despite positive structure

Technically, NIO trades above its MA-20 ($5.38), MA-50 ($5.04), and MA-200 ($5.39), reflecting a positive structure across all main averages. The Ichimoku Kijun is at $5.31, now serving as support. Momentum signals are mixed: the D1 MACD points to bullish momentum, while the ADX at 17.61 indicates a weak trend and intraday oscillators show divergence. RSI and CCI are both positioned in the buy zone on the daily chart, but Stoch RSI is neutral with neither overbought nor oversold readings. BBP remains positive, showing continued buyer strength, though today's action has seen a steady 3.29% drop since the open and places the price near today's low with subdued volatility. This combination suggests lingering intraday weakness despite some positive momentum signals.

Bullish breakout or downside risk as price nears volatility band

Looking forward to the week, NIO is expected to trade within a $5.40 to $5.85 range, which reflects a typical volatility band relative to current levels. There is a roughly 75% chance of a price increase, led by strong buy signals in the weekly MA-50 and RSI, while neutral MACD and ADX readings temper bullish confidence. The base scenario sees the stock ranging between $5.40 and $5.85. Should the price break above $5.85, a further bullish move could be confirmed; a dip below $5.40 support might trigger additional downside.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees Nio’s strong fundamentals supporting the current technical structure despite short-term volatility. The analyst notes that cost reductions, first net profit, and platform expansions demonstrate solid progress and boost sentiment even as the price action faces selling pressure. He believes the price will likely stay within the $5.40 to $5.85 range and that upside potential remains significant given the improving weekly signals. "With the fundamentals strengthening and technical support holding, I expect Nio to rebound toward the upper end of its range in the coming days."

Previously it was reported that Nio's outlook was underpinned by improving fundamentals and ongoing progress in international expansion, despite muted trend strength in the price action. The latest developments reinforce this cautiously positive narrative, but traders should closely monitor the $5.40 support and $5.85 resistance levels as a breakout in either direction could signal the next decisive move.

Source of Data: NIO Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.