Memory supply shortages limit Nvidia stock as price holds steady

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Nvidia slides 0.60% to $176.33 today

Highlights

Nvidia introduced networking products to improve AI system efficiency, while potential memory shortages could limit Rubin GPU production to 1.5 million units.
Hedge funds and institutional investors adjusted portfolios, but Nvidia shares remain under selling pressure despite the positioning changes.
NVDA trades below key moving averages with mixed momentum signals, maintaining a $172.50–$180.50 range and a higher likelihood of further downside.

Portfolio shifts and supply concerns drive caution despite product launches

Nvidia has introduced new networking products aimed at improving efficiency and reducing power consumption in AI systems. KeyBanc reported that memory supply shortages could potentially limit Rubin GPU production to 1.5 million units. Hedge funds adjusted their holdings, and there were portfolio changes among large institutional investors, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Mixed momentum as overbought signals clash with intraday weakness

Momentum signals are mixed: D1 MACD gives a Strong Sell bias, while ADX is neutral with low directional strength. RSI on D1 suggests mild weakness and sides with Sell, Stoch RSI is overbought, and CCI is neutral — signaling modest downside or exhaustion rather than deep oversold conditions. BBP is solidly overbought, pointing to buyer dominance, yet the daily slip of $1.06 or 0.60% underlines intraday selling pressure. There was no opening gap (previous close: $177.39, open: $177.13), and the price is currently leaning near the session low ($175.84) in a relatively low-volatility range. Taken together, there is visible divergence between momentum and oscillator signals, with intraday trading exhibiting steady pressure after the open, not fully in line with overbought readings.

Downside favored as neutral momentum keeps NVDA in tight range

For the coming week, the forecast band is adjusted to $172.50 – $180.50, reflecting typical volatility for NVDA and keeping the current price near the center. Probability of a rise is very low (less than 20%), with a price decline being more likely based on the balance of weekly indicators (most W1 momentum gauges are Neutral or Sell, and only MA-50-w1 is Buy). The baseline scenario sees NVDA stuck in a sideways corridor between $172.50 and $180.50. The bullish case requires a break above the $179.28 resistance, targeting the upper bound and potentially beyond if buyers regain dominance; if sellers strengthen, a bearish scenario could send the price below $175.84, with room to retest the $172.50 support.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, believes NVIDIA remains under pressure as technical signals point to short-term weakness. He sees that new product releases and institutional flow do little to offset bearish momentum, with conflicting oscillators adding uncertainty. The stock is likely to stay in a tight range unless resistance above $179.28 is cleared. "Until buyers reclaim key resistance, risks of further downside prevail and I remain defensive on NVDA."

Earlier, analysts noted that Nvidia was consolidating after a period of volatility, with the market awaiting a decisive catalyst for the next move. The current landscape, marked by short-term selling pressure and fresh concerns about component supply, raises the risk of a downside retest, making the $172.50 support a critical level for traders to monitor in the near term.

Source of Data: NVDA Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.