Chevron stock edges lower as $198.24 resistance proves tough to crack

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Chevron slides 1.01% to $196.90 today

Highlights

Major investors made divergent adjustments to Chevron positions in Q4, with Y.D. More Investments cutting its stake by 46.2% and Leo Wealth LLC boosting holdings by 73.6%.
Buffalo Business & Estate Services initiated a new stake of 26,971 shares, while Rathbones Group modestly increased its position amid broader selling pressure in the share price.
Chevron trades below immediate resistance and faces short-term seller pressure, but technical outlook suggests high probability of a sideways-to-bullish move within a $193.00–$202.50 range.

Portfolio adjustments intensify as selling persists in share price

During the fourth quarter, Y.D. More Investments Ltd reduced its holdings in Chevron by 46.2%, now owning 11,137 shares, while Leo Wealth LLC increased its position by 73.6%, reaching 19,550 shares. Rathbones Group PLC slightly raised its stake in the company to 746,934 shares, and Buffalo Business & Estate Services Ltd acquired a new stake amounting to 26,971 shares valued at approximately $4,111,000. These investment position adjustments occurred as price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Conflicting technical signals as oscillators diverge on momentum

Momentum readings are mixed: the D1 MACD shows strong buy signals, while ADX also supports a bullish trend. However, Stoch RSI signals oversold conditions, and the RSI remains modestly bullish at 52.67, with CCI in neutral territory. BBP points to overbought conditions, but its direction recently shifted, highlighting past buyer dominance. The current price slipped 1.01% after opening largely flat versus the previous close, trading nearer today’s low ($196.37) than the high ($199.71). Intraday volatility is mild. Sellers have pressed the price lower after the open, and the oscillators and momentum signals give conflicting cues, indicating a lack of clear intraday leadership.

Bullish potential rises as volatility band narrows

Looking ahead, the expected price range for the coming week is $193.00 to $202.50, adjusted for recent levels and market conditions. The probability of an upside move is very high (more than 80%), with downside risk currently less likely. The baseline scenario sees CVX remaining in a sideways channel around current levels. A bullish scenario would require a break and close above $198.24, targeting the upper end of the projected volatility band relative to current levels, while a bearish scenario unfolds if the price falls below $193.00, exposing the stock to further selling toward the SMA-50 area.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees Chevron holding a constructive technical position above its key medium- and long-term averages. He notes that recent institutional flows are mixed but do not threaten the stock’s broadly bullish structure. Despite short-term price weakness and conflicting momentum, he believes the risk-reward remains attractive with upside favored. "As long as CVX trades above $193.00, I expect renewed buyer interest and a strong attempt to break above $198.24 in the coming sessions."

Earlier, analysts noted that Chevron maintained a generally bullish posture, supported by resilient medium- and long-term trends despite short-term volatility and mixed technical signals. The latest positioning by major institutional investors, alongside persistent mixed momentum readings, reinforces the ongoing importance of monitoring a decisive move above $198.24 as a catalyst for upside extension in the coming sessions.

Source of Data: CVX Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.