US Dollar vs Korean Won price dips amid rising selling pressure

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Usd/krw slides 1.17% today

Highlights

USD/KRW is pressured by short- and medium-term bearish signals but maintains a long-term bullish structure.
Momentum and oscillator indicators are mixed, with conflicting signals of oversold conditions and a strong MACD-led buy bias.
For the coming week, the pair is likely to trade sideways between ₩1,465 and ₩1,500, with 75% probability of an upward move if resistance is breached.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees USD/KRW under sustained short- and medium-term pressure despite a dominant long-term bullish trend. He notes the absence of supportive macro news, keeping sentiment muted and amplifying technical risks. Kharitonov highlights the divergence between the bullish MACD and other momentum indicators as a warning sign for buyers. He points out dynamic resistance at ₩1,481.84 and growing exhaustion, suggesting rallies may struggle to gain traction. "I advise traders to stay cautious here, as conflicting indicators and a lack of fresh news make the risk of deeper correction very real."

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, believes the bullish structure of USD/KRW remains intact even after the recent drop. He emphasizes that the pair trades above the crucial 200-day moving average, supporting further upside. Karapetjanc sees opportunity in the current range, citing strong weekly indicators favoring buy setups. He is confident the long-term trend will attract new buyers if the price approaches ₩1,465. "With key support holding, I expect further growth and see this market offering multiple setups for those who remain optimistic."

Parshwa Turakhiya, analyst, notes mixed intraday sentiment as USD/KRW attempts to stabilize after a sharp drop. He highlights the oversold readings on oscillators, which could spark short-term rebounds toward the ₩1,481–₩1,500 zone. Turakhiya points out the sideways baseline and sees intraday volatility creating tactical opportunities for nimble traders. "I see the recent volatility as a stage for quick, sentiment-driven setups until a clear trend emerges above ₩1,500 or below ₩1,465."

Mixed momentum signals as buyers test support after sharp drop

USD/KRW is trading below the 20-day and 50-day moving averages (₩1,505.95 and ₩1,481.84), but above the 200-day (₩1,455.85), indicating short- and medium-term bearish pressure amid long-term bullish structure. Near-term dynamic resistance aligns at the 50-day MA (₩1,481.84), with support at the Ichimoku Kijun (₩1,507.37). Momentum indicators are mixed: MACD gives a strong buy signal on the daily chart, yet the Average Directional Index (ADX) shows only moderate bullishness. Oscillators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI), Stochastic RSI, and Commodity Channel Index (CCI) point to oversold or selling conditions, highlighting a divergence with bullish MACD momentum. Bull/Bear Power (BBP) remains positive at 0.67, suggesting buyers still dominate intraday action, but the overbought reading signals near-term exhaustion. The pair fell ₩17.55 or 1.17% today, opening with a downside gap of roughly ₩20 and stabilizing in the upper part of its intraday range as volatility stands at 0.95%. After initial weakness, the intraday tone hints at attempts to hold support with some buyer interest even as signals remain conflicted.

Earlier, analysts noted that USD/KRW was experiencing short- to medium-term bearish pressure while maintaining an overall long-term bullish bias. The latest market action reinforces this outlook, with a key focus now on whether the pair can defend support near ₩1,465 to avoid deeper correction risk in the coming sessions.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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