Silver gains 1.73% as Indian government approves major banks for silver imports

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Silver jumps 1.73% today to $79.78

Highlights

India has authorized major banks to import silver through March 2029, bolstering official bullion supply channels.
The global silver market faces its sixth straight annual supply deficit, with depleted inventories heightening risk of supply tightness.
Silver trades in a strong uptrend with price above major technical support; expected range is $76.00–$84.00 as bullish momentum dominates but near-term pullback risks rise from overbought signals.

Supply deficit risks rise as bank import norms uphold official flow

The Indian government has updated its list of authorized banks for silver imports, with major institutions such as SBI, HDFC, and ICICI being granted permission under new norms valid from April 2026 to March 2029, supporting the continuity of official bullion supply chains. The silver market is also experiencing its sixth consecutive annual supply deficit, with stockpiles depleted according to the latest World Silver Survey, exposing the market to potential supply tightness. Additional upward pressure comes from heightened investor demand for Silver as a safe-haven asset amid inflation concerns and changing interest rate dynamics.

Bullish momentum persists as overbought signals warn of pullback

Momentum indicators on the daily chart continue to favor buyers, with MACD pointing to a buy and ADX at 33.61 suggesting a persistently strong — though slightly overextended — trend despite its sell signal. RSI sits at 60, indicating bullish conditions, but both Stoch RSI (84) and CCI (147) are in overbought territory; BBP at 4.58 confirms buyers firmly control intraday momentum. The Awesome Oscillator also supports the bullish setup. Today marks an upward session with a $1.36 (1.73%) gain after a small positive gap from the previous close, with price probing at the daily highs and notable intraday volatility. The tone leans bullish with sustained pressure toward session highs, though the mix of strong momentum and overbought oscillators signals potential for near-term pullbacks or consolidation.

Sideways outlook likely as volatility drives short-term risk

For the next five trading days, the expected XAG price range has been normalized to $76.00–$84.00 given the current volatility and price level. The probability of continued price gains is very high (more than 80%), while a decline is less likely. The baseline scenario is sideways trade between immediate support and resistance. In a bullish scenario, XAG may challenge resistance beyond $84.00, driven by persistent buying momentum, while a bearish scenario would see a correction toward $76.00 should overbought signals trigger profit-taking and a loss of short-term support.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, Traders Union expert, sees fundamental support for silver prices from ongoing supply deficits and strong demand, especially as Indian banks maintain continuity in bullion imports. He believes the bullish macro environment and constructive sentiment should sustain elevated prices within the $76.00 – $84.00 range. The analyst notes small risks of profit-taking due to overbought signals, but overall expects upward momentum to persist. "The foundations for silver remain robust, and any pullbacks are likely to attract renewed buying interest in the coming week."

Earlier, analysts noted that silver was exhibiting broad-based bullish momentum amid persistent geopolitical risks and tightening supply fundamentals. The current analysis not only strengthens this outlook with confirmation of continued strong trend signals and renewed institutional support for imports but also highlights that traders should closely monitor potential volatility around key levels as the risk of short-term pullbacks rises in an overbought market.

Source of Data: XAG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.