Microsoft is going through a paradigm shift in its relationship with OpenAI: the company is losing exclusivity and will no longer share revenues, but it retains its status as a key cloud and infrastructure partner with licenses extending to 2032 and priority hosting of models on Azure.
This is seen not as a break, but as a weakening of MSFT’s monopoly in AI, under which OpenAI models can also be hosted on AWS, Google Cloud, and other platforms, intensifying competition with Anthropic, Google, and Amazon.
The market is waiting for the April 29, 2026 earnings report as a decisive test for MSFT: with expected revenue of about 81–82 billion USD and EPS around 4.05–4.07 USD, investors are less focused on the numbers themselves and more on Azure growth, the increase in AI revenue (Copilot, enterprise AI), and the pace of capex investments in GPU infrastructure. Bulls see the stock as a long‑term AI‑core play, supported by targets up to 650 USD from major banks, while the market already values MSFT at a P/E of approximately 26–33x, highlighting high expectations and the risk of disappointment if AI spending does not pay off faster than the model assumes.
In the end, Microsoft maintains fundamental strength as a leader in enterprise AI and cloud but has reduced its uniqueness through OpenAI and entered a period of strict monetization scrutiny: a bull scenario (Azure growth above 38% plus rising AI revenue) could open the path to 450 USD+, while a bear scenario (higher capex burden combined with slower growth in margin‑enhancing income) would push the stock toward 390–400 USD. Today, MSFT is not a story of “AI growth,” but a story of “proving that AI actually generates profit, not just expenses.”
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