UZS11,900 support underpins US Dollar vs Uzbekistani Som flat movement
US Dollar vs Uzbekistani Som (USD/UZS) is trading at $11,965.57 after a daily decline of 0.5%. The pair remains below its key moving averages as the session continues.
12029.88
12092.04
Highlights
- USD/UZS remains under persistent selling pressure as price trades below key moving averages across all timeframes.
- Momentum and oversold indicators reinforce a strong bearish outlook, though extreme readings caution against initiating new short positions.
- Expected weekly range is $11,900–$12,050, with downside risk elevated unless a rebound above $12,112.07 signals a potential reversal.
Oversold conditions intensify as resistance levels remain unbroken
Price action remains capped by specific resistance markers, with SMA-20 at $12,115.48, SMA-50 at $12,146.84, and SMA-200 at $12,098.29 well above the current level. The Ichimoku Kijun is also overhead at $12,112.07. Oversold signals are pronounced, as shown by RSI at 33.65, CCI at –146.31, and Stoch RSI at 2.60. MACD indicates a persistent downtrend, while ADX is neutral on the daily chart but shows moderate selling bias on the weekly. BBP stands decisively negative at –25.59, highlighting intraday seller dominance.
Further downside risk looms as sellers retain control
For the week ahead, USD/UZS is likely to fluctuate within a typical volatility band between $11,900 and $12,050. The probability of further downside exceeding 80% suggests sellers remain in firm control, although depth of oversold readings may prompt intermittent rebounds. A sustained move above $12,112.07 would indicate the onset of a reversal, while a close beneath $11,900 risks accelerating bearish momentum to reach new lows.
Previously, analysts noted that USD/UZS remained under persistent bearish pressure, with technical indicators signaling downside risks. The latest price action and pronounced oversold readings reinforce this prevailing scenario, suggesting traders should watch for potential volatility around the $11,900 support level as increased selling could drive further declines.
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