Gemini secures U.S. derivatives license to expand prediction markets business

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Gemini gains U.S. derivatives license

Highlights

Gemini received approval from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission for a derivatives clearing organization license, enabling it to clear and settle trades internally.
Prediction market trading volume is projected to surge over 300% to $63.5 billion in 2025 as Gemini, Kalshi, Polymarket, and Hyperliquid compete for market share.
Gemini's U.S.-focused expansion—following staff cuts and withdrawals from the UK, EU, and Australia—caused its shares to rise about 7% after the license announcement.

License approval expands trading infrastructure

As reported by CoinDesk, Gemini Space Station received approval from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission for a derivatives clearing organization license, enabling the exchange to clear and settle trades internally rather than relying on outside providers.

That structure gives Gemini more control over how its prediction market offerings operate and scale. The company says the combination of its clearing license and the designated contract market authorization previously granted to affiliate Gemini Titan positions it to offer a full-stack ecosystem covering sports, crypto, futures, options and event-based contracts.

Cameron Winklevoss says in a company statement that the approval marks a major step in Gemini's marketplace expansion and supports its broader ambition to build a financial services "super app." Gemini also says it plans to expand into crypto futures, options and perpetuals for U.S. users.

Prediction market rivalry and U.S. focus

Gemini's move comes as prediction markets become one of crypto's fastest-growing segments. Trading volume in the sector rises more than 300% in 2025 to $63.5 billion, while platforms including Kalshi, Polymarket and Hyperliquid compete for a larger share of the market.

Traditional finance firms are also moving into the space. Roundhill Investments is expected to launch the first U.S. exchange-traded funds tied to prediction markets on May 5, and two other asset managers are preparing similar products.

Gemini's latest approval builds on its December 2025 launch of a prediction marketplace through Gemini Titan. In February, the company said it would focus on the U.S. market after withdrawing from the UK, European Union and Australia, a shift that included cutting about 25% of staff.

Shares in Gemini rose about 7% after the announcement. The founders say the U.S. remains the company's core market and argue that prediction markets could become as large as, or larger than, today's capital markets.

Our earlier article on the Senate’s crypto market structure bill explained how Republicans were moving to revive the proposal and push it toward a Senate Banking Committee markup in mid-May. We noted that the measure is meant to clarify U.S. regulatory oversight of digital assets, but remained slowed by disputes over stablecoin yield restrictions, ethics rules for government officials, and legal protections for software developers.

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