₪3.0487 resistance caps US Dollar vs Israeli Shekel movement

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US Dollar vs Shekel gains 0.70% today

Highlights

Israel's multi-billion dollar F-35 purchase from the U.S. signals significant USD outflows impacting USD/ILS flows.
Ongoing defense modernization and rising Iran tensions underscore persistent demand for USD and heightened geopolitical risk in the pair.
USD/ILS trades below key moving averages with weak momentum, likely consolidating between ₪2.90 and ₪3.03 as downside remains favored.

Defense deal and Iran tensions drive USD outflows and risk flows

Israel’s approval of a multi-billion dollar deal to acquire F-35 fighter jets from the United States on May 3, 2026, marks a significant government-backed USD outflow and reinforces the importance of the USD/ILS cross in the context of major defense transactions. The Defence Ministry’s stated focus on military modernization and maintaining strong U.S. security partnerships further signals sustained USD-denominated purchasing and long-term bilateral cooperation. Later that day, security meetings led by Prime Minister Netanyahu in response to heightened Iran tensions brought additional geopolitical risk, potentially driving short-term safe-haven demand for the dollar against the shekel.

Downtrend persists as key technicals confirm seller control

The USD/ILS pair remains below the SMA-20 at ₪2.9904, SMA-50 at ₪3.0712, and SMA-200 at ₪3.1581. The nearest key resistance lies at the Ichimoku Kijun level of ₪3.0487. On the daily timeframe, both the MACD and ADX maintain sell signals, while RSI sits near 30 and CCI confirms an oversold condition. The Stoch RSI is neutral on D1, and BBP is below zero, indicating ongoing dominant seller momentum at the intraday scale.

Rangebound trading expected as breakout odds remain subdued

In the short term, typical volatility is expected to confine USD/ILS within a band of ₪2.90 to ₪3.03. The probability of an upward breakout remains low, with a likelihood under 20%. Consolidation near current levels appears likely, while a push above ₪3.05 would be required to spark a bullish reversal, and a sustained drop below ₪2.90 could open the way for further downside.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, notes that despite the significant F-35 deal and heightened geopolitical risks, USD/ILS remains subdued below key moving averages and technical levels. He sees persistent downside momentum, with technical indicators confirming seller dominance while any bullish catalysts seem limited for now. Resistance at ₪3.05 is decisive, and only a sustained move above this level would alter his cautious view. "Until ₪3.05 is broken on strong volume, I remain defensive and do not trust any bullish reversal attempts in USD/ILS."

Earlier, analysts noted that bearish momentum and persistent pressure from a strong shekel were keeping the US Dollar on the defensive against the Israeli currency. With recent geopolitical developments and ongoing USD-denominated defense spending, traders should remain alert for a potential shift in volatility, particularly if heightened tensions or policy moves trigger breakout moves beyond the current consolidation band.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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