Gold price forecast: $4,650–$4,810 range as XAU trades flat

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Gold slides 0.58% today to $4,673.77

Highlights

Prime Minister Modi called for a one-year pause on gold purchases to alleviate pressure on India's current account and rupee.
RBI gold reserves rose to 880 tonnes by March 2026, while Q1 2026 tokenized gold trading volumes surpassed all of 2025.
Technicals indicate a high probability of gold trading between $4,650 and $4,810 in the next five days, with overbought signals and trend-continuation bias.

Import curbs and central bank buying reshape Indian gold flows

Prime Minister Narendra Modi urged Indian citizens to refrain from buying gold for at least a year, aiming to reduce the strain of gold imports on the rupee and the current account deficit. The Reserve Bank of India's acquisition of 168 tonnes over the past year, bringing its total gold reserves to 880 tonnes as of March 2026, was reported alongside this initiative. Additionally, tokenized gold trading reached $90.7 billion in volume for the first quarter of 2026, surpassing all of 2025, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Bearish momentum and overbought signals despite range support

From a technical standpoint, XAU trades just below the MA-20 at $4,676.69 and above the MA-50 at $4,653.17 and MA-200 at $4,582.34, with the Ichimoku Kijun level positioned far below at $2,442.00. D1 MACD signals Strong Sell and ADX signals Sell, indicating short-term bearish momentum, while RSI at 51.46 is neutral-positive and Stoch RSI at 89.99 reflects overbought conditions. Bull/Bear Power (BBP) remains overbought at 57.51, suggesting recent buyer dominance, whereas CCI and the Awesome Oscillator (AO) are neutral. After a minor gap down at the open, gold is trading close to the lower bound of its intraday range, with moderate volatility and conflicting signals between trend and oscillators.

Sideways bias persists unless breakout disrupts current structure

Over the next five trading days, XAU is expected to remain within a typical volatility band between $4,650 and $4,810. There is a high probability (over 80%) that prices will move sideways within this range. Should a bullish breakout occur, a move above $4,810 could target new highs. A decline below $4,650 would expose additional support levels, but the structure continues to favor upward continuation barring a significant breakdown.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees ongoing resilience in gold despite policy-driven headwinds out of India. He notes that strong institutional demand, as shown by the Reserve Bank of India’s accumulation and surging tokenized trading volumes, is offsetting calls for lower retail buying. The current technicals are mixed, but long-term support remains solid above key averages. 'With fundamentals robust and new market formats driving participation, I expect gold to stay supported and any dips toward $4,650 to present opportunity for medium-term buyers.'

Earlier, analysts noted that gold remains a cornerstone for portfolio protection during turbulent periods but cautioned that its upside may be limited following recent rallies. In light of the Reserve Bank of India’s sustained gold accumulation and robust growth in tokenized trading, current sideways price action highlights $4,650 as the key support level traders should monitor for any shift in directional momentum.

Source of Data: XAU Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.