Nvidia stock rallies as U.S. authorizes Chinese firms to buy H200 AI chips

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Nvidia jumps 3.75% today to $235.14

Highlights

U.S. authorities have temporarily allowed select Chinese companies to buy Nvidia's advanced H200 AI chips, expanding Nvidia's official market access in China.
Ongoing illicit smuggling of Nvidia technology into China and Russia is prompting legislative scrutiny and raises the risk of stricter export controls.
NVDA remains in a strong bullish trend, trading between $230.00 and $240.00 with high probability for further price increases.

Investor demand surges as US-China summit expands Nvidia chip access

U.S. authorities have temporarily authorized select Chinese firms to purchase Nvidia's advanced H200 AI chips, directly expanding the company's addressable market in China and sparking increased investor demand for shares. This decision was reached during the high-profile summit in Beijing between U.S. President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping, where Nvidia's chip access was a central discussion point alongside broader economic and regulatory concerns. At the same time, persistent illegal smuggling of Nvidia technology into China and Russia has renewed legislative scrutiny, raising the risk of stricter future export controls. The confluence of expanded official sales channels and lingering regulatory uncertainty is driving attention to Nvidia's cross-border business outlook.

Overbought signals emerge as NVDA tests technical resistance zone

NVDA's price sits above significant technical thresholds, with the MA-20 at $207.25, the MA-50 at $191.19, and the MA-200 at $185.44, while the Ichimoku Kijun level at $204.00 provides immediate support. The stock’s momentum is underscored by a bullish daily MACD and Awesome Oscillator, although the ADX reading is neutral, suggesting trend persistence without extreme strength. Oscillator readings for RSI (72.54), Stoch RSI (85.30), CCI (173.83), and BBP (16.38) are all deep in overbought territory, implying risk of a pause or a short-lived pullback as buying has dominated the intraday session. The visible gap higher on the open and ongoing trading near daily highs between $230.48 and $236.43 highlight robust volatility and continued buying pressure.

Range-bound trading eyed as consolidation risk dominates outlook

Over the upcoming week, NVDA is expected to fluctuate between $230.00 and $240.00, reflecting typical volatility bands relative to current price levels. The most probable scenario is a consolidation phase within this range, supported by persistent bullish signals from multi-timeframe indicators. Should the price break above $240.00 and hold, an extension of the rally is likely; conversely, a close below $230.00 could trigger profit-taking and initiate a corrective move.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees Nvidia's near-term price action as driven by temporary regulatory openings for Chinese sales, but highlights that the positive momentum sits atop a fragile policy backdrop. He notes robust technical strength above all key moving averages, but cautions about stretched overbought readings and potential regulatory tightening due to illegal chip smuggling. The base case for NVDA is range-bound consolidation between $230.00 and $240.00, with a breakout in either direction requiring confirmation. "Despite the uptick, I remain cautious — unless $240.00 is convincingly reclaimed, the stock faces risks from both policy reversal and profit-taking."

Earlier, analysts noted that Nvidia’s upward momentum was supported by progress on regulatory approvals for chip sales to China despite lingering uncertainty over export controls. The latest developments add fresh geopolitical and compliance complexity to the story, making the durability of NVDA’s elevated price action increasingly dependent on how legislative responses to smuggling and further regulatory measures unfold.

Source of Data: NVDA Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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