Gold holds steady after India raises gold import duties to 15%

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Gold drops 0.79% today on risk

Highlights

Gold prices remain volatile amid heightened geopolitical risk from US-Iran conflict and near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Rising oil prices, persistent US inflation, and India's gold import duty hike to 15% sustain global and domestic pricing pressure.
Gold trades below key moving averages with strong bearish momentum; five-day range seen at $4,450–$4,570, downside risk prevails unless $4,645 clears.

Supply risk and Middle East tension sustain gold demand amid rate jitters

Geopolitical tensions linked to the ongoing US-Iran conflict and near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz have sustained a volatile backdrop for gold by maintaining high supply-chain risks and fueling global uncertainty. Escalating oil prices, driven by these events and persistent instability in the Middle East, have added to inflationary pressures and continued to prompt increased safe-haven interest in gold. Meanwhile, joint statements from Russia and China condemning US plans for an expanded missile defense system, as well as recent regulatory actions in India raising gold import duties from 6% to 15%, have contributed to macro risk and volatility in domestic gold pricing. Broader investor sentiment has remained under pressure due to persistent inflation concerns and expectations of sustained high interest rates in the United States.

Negative momentum and oscillators drive prolonged bearish trend for XAU

Technically, XAU is trading below its SMA-20 ($4,613.25), SMA-50 ($4,668.25), and SMA-200 ($4,600.16). The Ichimoku Kijun sits at $4,644.84, acting as immediate resistance. Momentum indicators are negative: the MACD and ADX both signal ongoing weakness, with the RSI at 42.25, CCI at -104.09, and BBP registering deep in negative territory to confirm prevailing oversold conditions and notable seller dominance. Stoch RSI and the HMA hint at possible near-term relief, although the Awesome Oscillator continues to align with the broader downtrend. Gold opened with a slight gap down from the previous close and is currently trading near today’s low, reflecting moderate volatility and continued selling pressure after the open. Divergence among oscillators is present, as the Stoch RSI offers a strong buy signal against the backdrop of broader bearish momentum.

Consolidation expected as breakout odds remain low and downside risk grows

Over the next five trading days, XAU is likely to oscillate within a volatility band of $4,450 to $4,570. The probability of an upward breakout remains low, at less than 20%. The prevailing scenario anticipates consolidation within this corridor near current levels, with downside risk dominating if XAU breaks below $4,450. Should resistance at $4,645 be reclaimed, a move toward the higher end of the range could rapidly develop; conversely, a breach of the lower band would expose further downside potential.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees gold as pressured by both persistent macro headwinds and technical weakness. He notes that downside risk persists while the asset remains below key averages and seller momentum dominates. Any upside scenario requires a sustained break above resistance, which currently looks unlikely. "Unless gold reclaims $4,645, base case stays defensive — I see further weakness as the primary risk."

Earlier, analysts noted that persistent selling pressure and broad market caution were dominating sentiment in the gold market despite geopolitical and institutional support. The latest deterioration in price action amid escalating geopolitical risks and domestic regulatory changes underscores the need for traders to closely monitor the $4,450 level, as a break below this threshold may accelerate downside momentum.

Source of Data: XAU Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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