US Dollar vs Uzbekistani Som price prediction: Will UZS 11,964 support hold as USD/UZS trades flat?

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US Dollar vs Uzbekistani Som slides 0.50%

Highlights

USD/UZS remains under persistent selling pressure across all timeframes, trading below major moving averages and key resistance levels.
Technical indicators confirm a bearish outlook with weak trend momentum and signals pointing toward oversold conditions.
For the coming week, USD/UZS is expected to trade within UZS 11,964–12,045, with a low probability of upside breakout.

Bearish momentum builds amid weak trend and resistance challenges

On the technical front, USD/UZS is trading below the 20-day SMA at UZS 12,050.24, the 50-day SMA at UZS 12,106.75, and the 200-day SMA at UZS 12,092.93. The Ichimoku Kijun level on the D1 timeframe stands at UZS 12,046.65 as immediate resistance. Momentum indicators show bearish signals: the MACD remains in sell territory, ADX is weak at 12.53, and the Awesome Oscillator confirms prevailing negative momentum. RSI is at 43.41 and Stoch RSI at 21.56, suggesting movement toward oversold conditions, while the CCI is neutral. Bull/Bear Power (BBP) points to persistent intraday buyer activity, but is contradicted by the broader daily negative momentum. The pair trades near the lower end of today’s UZS 11,997.47–12,089.34 range, with low-to-moderate volatility.

Further losses favored as resistance caps recovery potential

Looking ahead, the short-term outlook for USD/UZS is shaped by technical resistance near the Ichimoku Kijun and the 20-day SMA. The anticipated weekly trading band is UZS 11,964–12,045, reflecting a typical volatility range near current levels. Scenarios favor further downside, with less than a 20% probability of an upside move. Any recovery scenario would require a close above resistance levels toward UZS 12,045–12,090, while a break below UZS 11,964 would confirm renewed selling and could trigger a weaker medium-term trend.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, notes that USD/UZS continues to face downward pressure as it trades below its key moving averages and technical resistance levels. The analyst sees bearish signals dominating in the absence of material news, with momentum and volatility indicators pointing toward a negative short-term bias. He believes buyers could step in if USD/UZS reclaims levels above UZS 12,045, but the odds still favor further declines. "Momentum is weak, but if bulls push above resistance, a reversal could quickly gain traction," Karapetjanc says.

Earlier, analysts noted that USD/UZS was under sustained bearish pressure amid cautious sentiment and weak momentum signals. The latest technical readings reinforce this view, with increased focus now on a potential downside break below UZS 11,964 as a signal for renewed selling risk in the sessions ahead.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.