Quiet session for Silver as India imposes new silver import licensing

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Silver drops 0.50% today to $75.29

Highlights

China's silver imports reached an eight-year high, reflecting robust industrial and investor demand that supports global silver consumption.
India tightened silver import licensing as domestic mutual funds received regulatory approval to invest in physical silver, shifting local investment demand.
XAG faces short- and medium-term selling pressure with weak momentum, expected to move sideways between $74.50 and $77.00 unless $74.50 support fails or $80.00 resistance breaks.

China and India shifts lift global demand as selling persists

China's silver imports surged to an eight-year high earlier this year, driven by increased demand from both industrial users and investors, which has supported global demand for the metal. India introduced new licensing requirements for silver imports after regulatory changes permitted domestic mutual funds to invest in physical silver, shifting local investment dynamics. These developments represent notable influences on silver’s global demand backdrop, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Bearish signals intensify as momentum weakens near technical lows

On the technical front, XAG is currently positioned below the SMA-20 at $78.72 and SMA-50 at $76.82, but above the long-term SMA-200 at $74.45. The Ichimoku Kijun resistance stands at $80.13. Momentum indicators are mixed: the daily MACD remains bearish and ADX neutral, while RSI, CCI, and Stoch RSI suggest weak momentum with oversold and sell readings. Bull/Bear Power (BBP) is notably negative and flagged as oversold, indicating persistent seller dominance; the price also sits near the low end of the day’s range, with moderate intraday volatility and early session pressure augmented by divergence between oscillators and price action.

Rangebound outlook holds as breakout triggers remain distant

Looking ahead to the next five sessions, XAG is expected to trade within a $74.50–$77.00 volatility band, centered on current levels and typical recent price swings. The baseline scenario anticipates a sideways movement within this range. A breakout above resistance at $80.00 could trigger further upside, while a drop below support at $74.50 would expose the metal to additional downside risk.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees silver facing persistent headwinds despite recent strong demand signals from China and regulatory shifts in India. Price action remains weak, with sellers dominating the market and momentum indicators leaning bearish. The analyst believes any upside is contingent on a break above $80.00, but downside risk prevails if $74.50 fails. "Until silver reclaims key resistance levels, I remain cautious and prefer to wait for stronger buy signals before turning positive," he says.

Earlier, analysts noted that silver was under persistent bearish pressure, with sellers maintaining control amid weak technical momentum. The current backdrop, featuring robust demand signals from Asia but continued seller dominance on technicals, suggests traders should monitor for a decisive breakout above or below the $74.50–$77.00 band to gauge the next directional move.

Source of Data: XAG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.