Wall Street futures hold near records as investors await U.S. payrolls data

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Wall Street futures near records

Highlights

Nasdaq Composite rises over 8%, S&P 500 adds about 5%, and Dow Jones gains nearly 3% in May, all closing at record highs Friday.
West Texas Intermediate crude climbs 1.8% to $88.83 per barrel Sunday, but posts a nearly 17% decline in May, its sharpest monthly drop since April 2025.
About 85% of S&P 500 companies report Q1 earnings above analyst estimates, beating profit forecasts by an aggregate 16.7% according to FactSet.

June opening trade and market drivers

As reported by CNBC, futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average inch down 30 points in overnight trading Sunday, while S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures are broadly flat as Wall Street prepares to start the new month near peak levels.

The muted futures move follows a strong May for equities. The Nasdaq Composite leads monthly gains, rising more than 8%, while the S&P 500 adds about 5% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gains nearly 3%. The main indexes close at fresh highs Friday after the U.S. and Iran reach a 60-day memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire.

President Donald Trump says he will meet in the Situation Room to make a final determination and reiterates that Iran must agree never to have a nuclear weapon. He also calls for the Strait of Hormuz to be immediately open. Adam Crisafulli, founder of Vital Knowledge, says markets largely assume a sustained halt in hostilities, though he warns that a formal announcement could trigger a sell-the-news reaction for the broader S&P 500.

Oil prices rise Sunday after retreating Friday on the geopolitical developments. West Texas Intermediate crude gains 1.8% to $88.83 a barrel, while Brent climbs 1.5% to $92.52, although the U.S. benchmark still posts its sharpest monthly decline since April 2025 with a drop of nearly 17% in May.

Earnings strength and labor data in focus

Investors now look to Friday’s closely watched nonfarm payrolls report for a clearer reading on labor market conditions and the outlook for Federal Reserve policy. The release arrives as the market weighs whether economic momentum remains firm enough to justify recent equity gains.

Corporate earnings continue to provide a key cushion for stocks. About 85% of S&P 500 companies report first-quarter earnings above analyst estimates, ahead of the five-year average of 78%, according to FactSet data. Companies beat profit forecasts by an aggregate 16.7%, more than double the average surprise of 7.3% over the past five years.

The S&P 500 gains 1.4% last week, marking its ninth straight positive week for the first time since the nine-week streak ending Dec. 29, 2023. The benchmark rises 5.2% in May, records a fresh intraday high and a record close on Friday, and is up 10.2% since the Iran war begins in February.

Our earlier coverage focused on how the U.S.-Iran war has pushed up gasoline, diesel and jet fuel prices, adding roughly $447 in extra energy costs per U.S. household and straining consumer budgets. We noted that the squeeze is showing up in weaker savings and heavier reliance on credit, raising concerns about how long spending can hold up if elevated energy prices persist.

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