Gold price forecast: $4,350–$4,550 range in focus as XAU trades flat

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Gold drops 0.63% today to $4,506

Highlights

Central banks have maintained a fourteen-quarter streak of net gold purchases, providing steady official sector demand support.
Falling oil prices have eased inflation risks, lowering prospects for aggressive rate hikes and reducing gold's opportunity cost.
Gold trades under key trend indicators with bearish momentum; price likely consolidates between $4,350 and $4,550 barring a breakout.

Official sector demand offsets oil decline and easing hike bets

Central banks were reported as net buyers of gold for fourteen consecutive quarters, reflecting a prolonged pattern of official sector accumulation that has supported underlying demand. In addition, a notable decline in oil prices has eased inflation concerns, which in turn reduced expectations for aggressive monetary tightening — a factor that impacts the opportunity cost associated with holding gold. These dynamics have provided some support for gold fundamentals, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Support tests intensify as weak trend saps technical momentum

Gold traded near today’s low of $4,491.15 and well below its SMA-20 ($4,578.88), SMA-50 ($4,652.69), and SMA-200 ($4,624.11). The Ichimoku Kijun level at $4,570.34 marks immediate resistance. On the momentum side, MACD showed a strong sell signal and ADX at 20.72 indicated very weak trend strength. Oscillators were mixed: RSI read 46.68 (mild downside bias), Stoch RSI was overbought at 100.00, CCI remained neutral, Bull/Bear Power (BBP) was overbought at 3.33, and the Awesome Oscillator was neutral. The price action featured moderate volatility after a session open just below the prior close, with session lows dominating.

Low breakout odds as consolidation expected to persist

Over the next five trading days, the expected price range is $4,350 to $4,550, reflecting the typical volatility band relative to current levels. The baseline scenario is for gold to consolidate sideways within this range, as the probability of a sustained breakout to the upside remains very low (less than 20%). A bullish case would require a move above immediate resistance at $4,570, which could open a path toward $4,600. Conversely, a break under $4,350 on strong selling could trigger further downside.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees persistent weakness in gold despite ongoing official sector accumulation. He notes that technical indicators remain bearish and the recent relief in inflation has failed to shift momentum. The analyst believes that consolidation within the $4,350–$4,550 range is likely, with upside breakouts facing strong resistance. "Until gold reclaims key moving averages and escapes seller pressure, I remain defensive and see limited reason to turn bullish."

Earlier, analysts noted that persistent selling pressure and elevated real yields continued to weigh on gold, with downside risks outweighing bullish momentum. The latest data on central bank buying and easing inflation concerns add depth to the current outlook, highlighting that sustained consolidation within the $4,350–$4,550 range remains the prevailing scenario, with any break below $4,350 a key downside risk to monitor.

Source of Data: XAU Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.