What is behind Euro vs Indonesian Rupiah price's recent drop in value today

Traders Union
All News
Financial News
Euro/idr slips 0.59% today

Highlights

Bank Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves declined by $1.3 billion in May 2026 to $144.9 billion, the lowest since June 2024, reflecting aggressive currency intervention.
The Rupiah faced additional downward pressure from seasonal dividend repatriation by foreign investors and heightened FX market volatility as the currency approached historic lows against the dollar.
EUR/IDR remains in a bullish technical structure with overbought conditions, likely consolidating within Rp20,564.14 to Rp21,187.09 over the next five trading days.

Central bank interventions and payout flows drive rupiah volatility

Bank Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves fell by USD 1.3 billion in May 2026 to USD 144.9 billion, reaching the lowest level since June 2024. This development was attributed to intensified interventions by Bank Indonesia aimed at supporting the Indonesian Rupiah, including the sale of US dollars. Additional downward pressure on the Rupiah resulted from seasonal dividend payments to foreign investors, and heightened currency market volatility was reported as the Rupiah approached a historic low against the US dollar on June 8, 2026.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, views the persistent bullish momentum in EUR/IDR with skepticism despite its position above all key moving averages. He notes that the recent depletion of Bank Indonesia's reserves and intensified interventions signal underlying weakness for the Rupiah, but these efforts may be unsustainable. Technical momentum remains positive, yet overbought signals and the recent intraday reversal warn of a potential near-term retracement. Kharitonov argues that several oscillators flag elevated downside risk, especially if support near Rp20,565 fails. "Traders should be wary of chasing upside here, as the risk of a corrective move is rising in the face of exhausted sentiment and weak fundamentals."

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees the current setup as strongly constructive for EUR/IDR. He highlights that fundamental drivers — including Bank Indonesia's heavy FX interventions and the impact of foreign dividend payments — have done little to alter the dominant bullish trend. Karapetjanc is confident in the continuation of the upward structure, given all weekly indicators align for further growth. "Bullish structure remains intact and the market offers multiple setups to capitalize on continued EUR/IDR strength in the coming sessions."

Bullish momentum at risk as overbought conditions and volatility emerge

EUR/IDR trades above all its key moving averages: the price of Rp20,813.32 is above the MA-20 at Rp20,703.41, MA-50 at Rp20,453.88, and MA-200 at Rp19,842.78, confirming bullish structure across short, medium, and long-term trends. The nearest dynamic support is at the Ichimoku Kijun level of Rp20,718.83, with resistance seen near the MA-50 and the Rp21,000 round level.

Momentum signals are positive on the daily timeframe as both the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and Average Directional Index (ADX) indicate a buying trend. Overbought signals are evident across the Relative Strength Index (RSI), Stochastic RSI, and Commodity Channel Index (CCI), highlighting stretched conditions. Bull/Bear Power (BBP) shows buyers are in control intraday, with a strong overbought reading. The pair opened with a moderate upside gap of about Rp42.81 and is now down 0.59% on the day, trading in the lower part of the range with intraday volatility at 1.20%. This signals some pressure after the open, with intraday price action showing a pullback even as daily momentum stays positive. Several oscillators flag conflicting signals, underscoring the risk of a near-term pause or retracement.

Earlier, analysts noted that downside risks prevailed for EUR/IDR amid ongoing volatility and mixed technical signals, with policy measures struggling to revive upward momentum. The latest shift to a bullish structure across all major moving averages and a high-probability outlook for further gains highlight a potential change in market direction, making sustained closes above Rp20,718 a key confirmation for the next leg higher.

Source of Data: EUR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.