Comber Wind Financial credit ratings affirmed at BBB with stable trend

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Comber Wind credit rating affirmed

Highlights

Morningstar DBRS affirms Comber Wind Financial's issuer and $450 million Series 1 Senior Secured Bonds ratings at BBB/Stable, with $172.4 million outstanding as of December 31, 2025.
Comber Wind project outperformed forecasts with 456.3 GWh average annual generation through 2025, 4.1% above P90 forecast and 1.6% above the credit rating case in 2025.
Debt service coverage ratio reached 1.45x for 2025, exceeding the 1.40x rating case projection, supported by $150.6/MWh fixed pricing and lower-than-expected costs.

Ontario wind project performance supports rating

As reported by Morningstar DBRS, DBRS Limited confirms the issuer rating on Comber Wind Financial Corporation and the credit rating on its $450 million Series 1 Senior Secured Bonds due November 15, 2030, at BBB with Stable trends. The issuer serves as the financing vehicle for 2016 Comber Wind Limited Partnership, which owns the 82.8-megawatt Comber East project and the adjacent 82.8-megawatt Comber West project in Essex County, Ontario. As of December 31, 2025, about $172.4 million of the bonds is outstanding.

The project begins commercial operations in November 2011 and generates an average of 456.3 gigawatt hours annually through year-end 2025, 4.1% above the annual P90 production forecast of 438.4 GWh and 5.1% above the credit rating case forecast of 434.3 GWh. In 2025, generation reaches 441.1 GWh, about 1.6% above the credit rating case forecast, despite an estimated 21 GWh generation loss caused by outages. Morningstar DBRS says the project does not achieve the P50 planned generation level of 500.7 GWh because of less favourable wind conditions, although output approximates P50 in 2013 and 2014.

For the 12 months ended December 31, 2025, the project posts a Morningstar DBRS-adjusted debt service coverage ratio of 1.45x, above projected average and minimum levels of 1.40x and 1.38x in the rating case. The agency says the stronger ratio is driven by a higher realized sales price and lower operating and maintenance expenses than forecast.

Contracted revenues and operating risks remain in focus

The rating remains anchored by fixed effective energy pricing under two feed-in tariff contracts with the Independent Electricity System Operator, which pays the difference between a fixed but partially indexed price and the Ontario market price for 20 years until November 2031. For 2025, that fixed price stands at $150.6 per MWh. The contracts expire 12 months after the bonds mature, providing revenue visibility through most of the remaining debt tenor.

Morningstar DBRS says a positive rating action may be considered in the near term if generation levels and debt service coverage continue to outperform the credit rating case. A negative action could be triggered by frequent forced outages or material and sustained underperformance against the rating case. The agency also identifies wind resource risk, production forecast and operating risk, and exposure to negative wholesale electricity prices as the main constraints on the credit profile.

The minimum DSCR of 1.38x results in an FRA score of bbb, reflecting the minimum forecast DSCR for the remaining debt tenor under the rating case. Morningstar DBRS adds that the baseline IA of bbb reflects the weighted average of the CBRA and CFRA on a 35/65 split.

In our earlier coverage of Morningstar DBRS’s annual review of Bletchley Park Funding 2025-1, we noted that UK buy-to-let mortgage securitisation performance remained stable, with arrears staying very low and cumulative losses at zero through the May 2026 payment date. That operating backdrop supported upgrades for several junior note classes, while senior notes were confirmed, with rising credit enhancement and a dedicated liquidity reserve fund highlighted as key credit strengths.

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