Telus stock price forecast: C$16.43 support as T continues sideways movement

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Telus drops 0.60% today on CRTC risk

Highlights

Telus faces regulatory risk after CRTC formally warned the company over its $15 SIM card fee, setting a compliance deadline and threatening fee-related revenues.
Telus is advancing efficiency through Cresta AI-powered customer experience tools and reaffirming broadband infrastructure expansion via government partnerships in British Columbia.
Telus trades below major moving averages with momentum indicators unanimously bearish, anticipating a likely move within the C$16.18–C$16.62 range and high downside probability.

Regulatory risks heighten as compliance warning and fee scrutiny emerge

The Canadian Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission (CRTC) issued formal warning letters to Telus regarding its $15 SIM card fee, setting a compliance deadline and raising the risk of regulatory action that may affect fee-related revenue streams and incur potential legal or operational costs. Telus Digital also announced a partnership with Cresta to implement AI-powered customer experience solutions, aiming to automate service delivery and improve efficiency over time. Additionally, Telus reaffirmed its commitment to expanding high-speed internet infrastructure through collaborations with federal and provincial governments in British Columbia. These developments were accompanied by broader selling pressure in the stock.

Sustained sell signals and weak momentum define technical outlook

On the hourly chart, T trades below the MA-20 at C$16.58 and MA-50 at C$16.77, with the long-term MA-200 well above at C$18.93. Immediate resistance is defined by the Ichimoku Kijun level at C$16.57, while price action pivots within intraday ranges. The hourly MACD and RSI (38.96) both indicate a sell bias, ADX and Stoch RSI remain neutral, and CCI is currently oversold. BBP signals persistent seller dominance, and the Awesome Oscillator is aligned with the ongoing downward move.

Downside breakout risk persists as trading range tightens

In the short term, T is expected to trade within a C$16.18–C$16.62 volatility band based on recent technical signals. The probability of an upside breakout is very low, while the likelihood of a downward move is high. Baseline scenario sees consolidation within this corridor, with a potential upside reversal only if immediate resistance is breached. Conversely, a breakdown below support may trigger further downside, in line with prevailing trend conditions.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, sees Telus facing clear technical and regulatory pressure. He notes that persistent weakness below key moving averages aligns with new CRTC warnings that introduce fresh compliance risks. The stock remains in a strong downward trend with little near-term support from recent news or price action. "Until T can reclaim at least C$16.58 and regulatory risks subside, I remain cautious on any upside attempts."

Previously it was reported that heightened regulatory scrutiny and political pressure were reshaping the telecom sector's landscape, especially concerning asset deployment and consumer-related fees. Telus now faces a pivotal juncture as regulatory action and weak technical momentum converge, making the C$16.18 volatility floor a critical level to watch for potential downside acceleration in the coming sessions.

Source of Data: T Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.