California ballot tax odds slide as Newsom moves to block billionaire measure
Prediction market pricing for a proposed California billionaire tax is falling sharply as the measure faces political resistance ahead of a key ballot deadline. Kalshi odds have dropped from 88% to 35.5% over the past week, reflecting rising doubts that the proposal will reach voters in November.
Highlights
- Kalshi odds of the California billionaire tax making the November ballot have dropped sharply as Governor Gavin Newsom actively works to block it before the June 25 deadline.
- The proposed one-time 5% net worth tax targets Californians with over $1 billion, about 200 people with $2 trillion total wealth, aiming to shore up healthcare after federal cuts.
- Supporters have submitted over 1.5 million signatures, far exceeding the 875,000 threshold, amid union backing and heightened political tensions involving Newsom and 2024 presidential considerations.
Ballot prospects weaken before June deadline
As first reported by Politico and Bloomberg News, Governor Gavin Newsom is pushing to stop the proposed billionaire tax from appearing on California's November ballot before a June 25 deadline.On Kalshi, the probability of the measure making the ballot has fallen steeply over the last week. The shift in market pricing underscores how quickly expectations have changed as reports of Newsom's opposition circulate.
Healthcare funding argument shapes debate
The proposal is backed by Service Employees International Union, United Healthcare Workers West, and calls for a one-time 5% tax on a billionaire's net worth. The union says the measure would help support California's healthcare system after major federal funding cuts.According to the union's website, the tax would apply only to Californians worth more than $1 billion, roughly 200 people with a combined wealth of $2 trillion. The group also says it has submitted more than 1.5 million signatures from California voters to qualify the initiative for the ballot, above the 875,000 required.
Newsom's reported opposition comes as he is seriously considering the presidential election. On Monday, the governor accused President Donald Trump of ordering the Department of Justice to investigate him and his wife.
Our earlier coverage of the Justice Department investigation involving Gavin Newsom and his wife reported that the governor disclosed ongoing federal probes and argued they were politically motivated. We noted that the legal scrutiny could complicate Newsom’s national ambitions by injecting uncertainty and forcing him to frame the situation as political persecution, a strategy that can backfire if the inquiry expands or voters reject it.
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