US Dollar vs Polish Zloty price edges higher as asset buying pressure builds

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Us dollar rises 0.61% today

Highlights

USD/PLN is in a sustained bullish trend, trading above major moving averages across all timeframes.
Technical indicators signal strong buying momentum, with positive MACD, bullish oscillator readings, and buyers dominating intraday flows.
The pair is likely to trade in a zł3.68–zł3.77 corridor over the next week, with key resistance at zł3.72 and a 75% probability of further gains.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, observes continued bullish momentum in USD/PLN but urges caution. He notes the lack of supportive news, which suggests sentiment could rapidly change if new information emerges. Kharitonov highlights that while technical conditions favor buyers, overbought signals and modest trend strength raise risk of short-term pullback. He is wary that reliance on technicals without fundamental or news catalysts may leave the pair vulnerable. "Strong technicals alone are not enough — any adverse development could quickly test support at zł3.68 or even deeper," he warns.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees a robust upside structure in USD/PLN and emphasizes that bullish momentum is supported by key indicators across timeframes. Despite the absence of recent news, he points to firm MACD and strong buying signals, which suggest further growth potential. Karapetjanc highlights the clear probability of gains outpacing declines, with resistance at zł3.72 now the target for bulls. "I remain confident that the market offers multiple setups for upside as long as price stays above zł3.68," he states.

Jainam Mehta, market strategist, interprets USD/PLN as technically overextended yet stable above key moving averages. He stresses that upward momentum could persist but warns of intraday volatility due to emerging overbought readings. Mehta considers a tactical approach, watching for a potential breakout above zł3.72 or contrarian entries on sharp pullbacks. "With volatility rising and oscillators overbought, nimble traders should position around breakout levels rather than chase momentum blindly," he advises.

Firm buyer dominance as price tests resistance amid overbought signals

USD/PLN is trading above the 20-day (zł3.6587), 50-day (zł3.6414), and 200-day (zł3.6271) simple moving averages, confirming persistent bullish momentum in the short, medium, and long term. The nearest dynamic support sits at the Ichimoku Kijun level of zł3.6615, with the next resistance found near the round level of zł3.7200. Momentum is firm as the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) signals a strong buy and the Average Directional Index (ADX) remains neutral, indicating an upward move but with modest trend strength. Oscillators including the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Commodity Channel Index (CCI) both read as “Buy”, and Stochastic RSI points to strong buy but with emerging overbought conditions on some intraday timeframes. Bull/Bear Power (BBP) is positive, reflecting buyer dominance intraday. The pair advanced zł0.0225, or 0.61%, for the day after a small downside gap and now trades near the high of its daily range. Intraday volatility stands at 0.98%, and recent price action shows renewed strength toward session highs, aligning with bullish momentum signals.

Earlier, analysts noted that USD/PLN was exhibiting persistent bullish momentum supported by positive technical signals and renewed confidence from recent central bank data. Building on this outlook, the latest price action reinforces the bullish scenario, with any decisive move above the zł3.72 resistance presenting a potential catalyst for further gains in the days ahead.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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