What is behind US Dollar vs South Korean Won price's recent gain in value today

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Us dollar/won rises 0.54% today

Highlights

South Korea will open its won FX market to 24-hour trading in H2 2024 to attract foreign investors and enhance liquidity.
Regulators are responding to recent currency volatility triggered by leveraged products and increased semiconductor-focused equity trading.
USD/KRW shows strong bullish momentum with high probability of trading between ₩1,521 and ₩1,559 over the next week.

Regulatory shift as FX market reforms follow leveraged ETF volatility

South Korea has announced plans to implement FX market reforms, aiming to open the won trading market around the clock from the second half of the year to boost access for foreign investors. These measures follow recent volatility from leveraged financial products and increased domestic equity trading focused on semiconductors. The Financial Supervisory Service has expressed regulatory concerns regarding leveraged ETFs, with the shift to 24-hour currency trading seen as the most direct regulatory action influencing the US Dollar vs South Korean Won.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, notes that the USD/KRW pair remains above all key moving averages, reflecting a sustained bullish push. He is cautious about the recent regulatory actions from South Korea and the risk of volatility as trading hours expand. While momentum and oscillator readings are positive, Kharitonov sees a lack of strong trend conviction from the ADX and neutral RSI. He stresses the risk that a move below ₩1,533 could trigger sharper losses, especially if global volatility picks up. "Despite the bullish appearance, I believe the risk of reversal remains underappreciated as policy shifts and intraday euphoria may not sustain this momentum."

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees the FX market reforms and the 24-hour trading initiative as clear catalysts for increased foreign participation and further growth. He interprets the strong MA structure and bullish technical signals as fresh confirmation that the market's uptrend remains healthy and offers opportunity. Karapetjanc emphasizes the pair's steady resilience despite regulatory noise, positioning the scenario for a potential breakout toward ₩1,559. "The bullish structure remains intact, and I expect the market to reward further participation as Korea embraces global currency standards."

Parshwa Turakhiya, analyst, observes that sentiment in USD/KRW is upbeat as the pair trades near its daily high within a tight volatility band. He highlights that intraday buyers show dominance, yet both the RSI and Stochastic RSI suggest no overextension. Turakhiya advises a scenario-driven approach, favoring quick trades on volatility spikes while guarding against sharp reversals below ₩1,533. "Short-term traders should watch for breakout setups but stay nimble until volatility confirms a lasting trend."

Sustained upside as technicals show multi-timeframe strength and neutral momentum

USD/KRW is trading above its 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages (₩1,524, ₩1,501, and ₩1,477, respectively), indicating strong bullish momentum across all timeframes. A bullish MA-50 versus MA-200 alignment further reinforces the trend, with near-term resistance at ₩1,541 and support at ₩1,533. Momentum indicators show a mostly positive bias: MACD generates a strong buy signal; ADX is neutral, suggesting the trend is not yet strongly established. The RSI stands at 55.14 and the Stochastic RSI at 30.56, both neutral, while the CCI near 32 indicates neither overbought nor oversold conditions. The BBP at 8.09 signals intraday buyer dominance and an overbought warning. The Awesome Oscillator gives an additional supporting buy signal. The pair is trading close to today's high amid 0.56% intraday volatility, reflecting persistent intraday strength in line with bullish momentum signals.

Earlier, analysts noted that USD/KRW was experiencing bullish momentum, with buyers dominating despite mixed technical signals and some caution about potential volatility. The current analysis reinforces this view, emphasizing that the shift to a 24-hour trading system and ongoing regulatory attention are likely to sustain upward bias, making a breakout above ₩1,541 the key risk to monitor in the days ahead.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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